# Non-Farm Data Ceases to Be the Market's "Explosive Point", Changes in Market Structure in 2026

Looking back at recent market evolution, one clear trend stands out: the instantaneous market impact of non-farm data is weakening, and this characteristic is expected to become even more pronounced by 2026. The reasons boil down to two aspects: the market has grown accustomed to bombardment from high-frequency macro data, reducing the marginal information value of any single data point; meanwhile, algorithms and expectations management mean that completely surprising data is becoming increasingly rare. Therefore, non-farm data is increasingly about verifying trends rather than creating them.

Against this backdrop, if 2026 non-farm data comes in slightly better or worse than expected, markets typically will only experience brief fluctuations before returning to their original rhythm. What truly triggers trend changes is consistent data direction over multiple consecutive months, or structural changes in key sub-components.

This means that short-term betting on non-farm data is experiencing declining cost-benefit ratio, while in medium-term strategies, operating on expectation differentials around non-farm data actually becomes more advantageous. For example, when the market is overly pessimistic, if non-farm data doesn't deteriorate further, this often serves as a turning signal for risk assets.

Non-farm data is shifting from "fireworks" to "background color"—this is an important characteristic of macro trading in 2026. #非农就业数据