#预测市场 I saw the probability of Bitcoin breaking through 100k on Polymarket plummet from earlier optimistic expectations to 10%, and what flashed through my mind was the tail end of the 2017 bull market. Back then, everyone was talking about 50k, 100k, and even more outlandish numbers, with market sentiment pushed to its extreme, until reality delivered everyone a hard slap with a prolonged bear market.
Today's scenario feels somewhat familiar. Prediction of 95k at 32% probability, breaking below 80k at 18% probability—what does this set of data reflect? It reflects market participants' expectations shifting from extreme optimism toward caution. History tells us that when most people begin to question a seemingly certain target, it often means the turning point of the cycle is already within sight.
However, it's worth noting here that prediction markets themselves are a double-edged sword. They reflect current market consensus, but consensus changes. I've seen countless things deemed "impossible" end up happening, and also seen "inevitable" expectations evaporate overnight. The key is that a probability dropping to 10% doesn't mean it's impossible, but rather that participants are repricing the cost of this possibility.
With 10 days remaining, we'll see how it all plays out. But regardless, this transition from optimism to caution in itself is already enough to make one reflect on the characteristics of this cycle.
#预测市场 I saw the probability of Bitcoin breaking through 100k on Polymarket plummet from earlier optimistic expectations to 10%, and what flashed through my mind was the tail end of the 2017 bull market. Back then, everyone was talking about 50k, 100k, and even more outlandish numbers, with market sentiment pushed to its extreme, until reality delivered everyone a hard slap with a prolonged bear market.
Today's scenario feels somewhat familiar. Prediction of 95k at 32% probability, breaking below 80k at 18% probability—what does this set of data reflect? It reflects market participants' expectations shifting from extreme optimism toward caution. History tells us that when most people begin to question a seemingly certain target, it often means the turning point of the cycle is already within sight.
However, it's worth noting here that prediction markets themselves are a double-edged sword. They reflect current market consensus, but consensus changes. I've seen countless things deemed "impossible" end up happening, and also seen "inevitable" expectations evaporate overnight. The key is that a probability dropping to 10% doesn't mean it's impossible, but rather that participants are repricing the cost of this possibility.
With 10 days remaining, we'll see how it all plays out. But regardless, this transition from optimism to caution in itself is already enough to make one reflect on the characteristics of this cycle.