【Chain Article】According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool, market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s actions next month are relatively cautious. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is only 11.6%, with the vast majority of traders betting on rates staying unchanged at a probability of 88.4%.
Looking further ahead, the situation is slightly looser. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by the end of March rises to 40.3%, but maintaining unchanged rates remains the mainstream expectation at a probability of 55.4%. Interestingly, the extreme scenario—a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut—has only a 4.3% probability of occurring, suggesting that the market widely believes rate cut magnitudes will be quite restrained.
These data reflect the current market’s conservative stance on Federal Reserve monetary policy and have important reference significance for the price movement of crypto assets.
CMEデータ：米連邦準備制度理事会の1月の利下げ確率はわずか11.6％、市場は政策の据え置きを支持
【Chain Article】According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool, market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s actions next month are relatively cautious. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is only 11.6%, with the vast majority of traders betting on rates staying unchanged at a probability of 88.4%.
Looking further ahead, the situation is slightly looser. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by the end of March rises to 40.3%, but maintaining unchanged rates remains the mainstream expectation at a probability of 55.4%. Interestingly, the extreme scenario—a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut—has only a 4.3% probability of occurring, suggesting that the market widely believes rate cut magnitudes will be quite restrained.
These data reflect the current market’s conservative stance on Federal Reserve monetary policy and have important reference significance for the price movement of crypto assets.