Sideways movement is sideways movement then, anyway I wasn't counting on making money in Q1 2026
Capital drought basically means no one's left to take over the position, no matter how pretty the data looks
Rather than believing in predictions, I'd rather trust my own intuition, black swans can appear anytime
During the sideways period it's actually a good time to research altcoins, maybe I can find the next opportunity
This guy didn't spell it out, but on-chain data simply can't compete with market sentiment
Wait, is this really going to be different this time
The bigger the divergence, the more I feel something major is about to happen, history's never that simple
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WhaleMistaker
· 01-08 10:01
Sideways movement is sideways movement, whatever. I've heard so many predictions over the past two years, and when I compare them to last year's forecasts, I can see how unreliable the data really is.
This whole "dried-up liquidity" thing sounds nice, but it's really just that the whales don't want to pump anymore. They're waiting for everyone to lose hope before the next wave. Same old playbook.
Instead of staring at on-chain metrics, you might as well research which altcoins are accumulating. The sideways period is where the real opportunities are.
One gripe though: every time they talk about black swans, and then an actual black swan hits, the analysis firms are just as confused as everyone else.
But real talk, the accumulation phase really does produce good projects. It all comes down to who can hold their nerve and not get liquidated.
Sideways movement, whatever. People keep waiting for "it might pump soon," but they keep getting proven wrong. Pretty funny, honestly.
When funds dry up, they're dried up. The data doesn't lie, but black swans come out of nowhere—what's the point of predicting?
Instead of obsessing over price movements, why not use the sideways period to research different sectors? At least you learn something.
Anyone trusting on-chain data should look at those failed predictions. Even calling it sideways might not be accurate.
Real money is king. Without a steady stream of new capital coming in, no matter how pretty the charts look, it's all meaningless.
The moment a black swan flaps its wings, all predictions get thrown out. I'm just waiting to see who can actually predict it accurately.
Actually, calling it consolidation instead of stagnation might be more interesting—the players getting in at this stage have patience.
Data analysis firms aren't fortune tellers. They ignore market sentiment and institutional moves, so how accurate can their predictions really be?
Let's wait and see. Sideways isn't that scary anyway. I'm not going anywhere, so might as well check out what new sectors look like.
某知名链上数据分析机构负责人最近抛出了一个有趣の予測：ビットコインは2026年第一四半期に持続的な横ばい局面に入る可能性が高い。この判断の核心的な支えは何か？資本流入の明らかな縮小である。
よく考えてみると、この論理は実は難しくない。ビットコインが持続的に上昇できるかどうかは、根本的には真金白銀が絶えず流入し続けているかどうかにかかっている。この増加資金が枯渇し始めると、たとえ歴史的な規則が上昇を示唆していても、価格は大きな突破を見せるのは難しい——最も現実的な結果は横ばいのまま停滞することだ。
ここには面白い逆説がある：歴史上、強気市場の初期にはよく好調なスタートを切ることがあるが、今回は市場のデータが常識を破る可能性を示している。オンチェーン指標と市場の感情との不一致が、新たな市場の特徴となりつつある。もし本当に二四半期まで横ばいが続くなら、ビットコインに関心を持つ人々は「上がるかもしれない」という失望を何度も経験することになる。
率直に言えば、この予測には限界もある。データはあくまで現状を反映しているだけであり、突発的な政策調整や市場のブラックスワンイベントが瞬時に状況を変える可能性もある。また、オンチェーン指標の分析だけに頼ると、市場の感情や機関の動きといった「見えない要素」の影響を見落とすことになる。
もう一つの視点から見ると、「横ばい」は必ずしも悪いニュースではない。停滞と見るよりも、むしろ蓄積の期間と捉えることもできる。このような市場環境下では、新興セクターの研究や業界の認知を深める絶好の機会となる。