Crypto Market Trend Analysis: ETH May Lead Alts Reversal

1. Macroeconomic Environment and Crypto Market Gradually Improve

1. Tariff policy easing Trump publicly acknowledged that the current tariffs on Chinese imports are too high, and it is expected that the tax rate will be significantly reduced, marking a easing of his attitude towards tariff policy.

2. The expectation of interest rate cuts has increased The current market expects interest rate cuts to begin in June, with a possibility of three cuts within the year, which is expected to inject new liquidity into the market.

3. Promotion of crypto-friendly policies Multiple crypto-friendly policies in the US are being implemented, including the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve and the promotion of stablecoin legislation. The new SEC chair is seen as friendly towards the crypto industry and is expected to reduce enforcement actions against crypto companies.

4. BTC Trend Reversal In early April, BTC showed a bottom divergence, and market sentiment was extremely fearful, forming a recent bottom. Currently, both the MACD fast and slow lines are above the zero axis, and the market trend has shifted from bearish to bullish.

2. ETH May Lead Alts Trend Reversal

1. On-chain data analysis The number of profitable ETH addresses and the MVRV indicator have both dropped to bear market lows, clearly entering an oversold state. The cost basis distribution shows an accumulation area for long-term holders around the $1850 mark, which could form new support.

2. Contract Market Analysis The ETH contract market has a large scale, with OI/MC higher than other mainstream coins. Recently, the contract open interest has a positive correlation with the price, with leveraged funds and spot funds jointly driving the price up. The open interest of some exchanges' contracts is several times that of spot reserves, providing a huge clearing profit space for both long and short parties.

3. Technical Analysis Multiple technical indicators for ETH show bottoming signals:

• The K-line pattern shows Spring and bullish engulfing
• Price breaks above the 20-day EMA
• MACD and momentum indicator divergence
• RSI and MFI enter the oversold zone

Currently, the ETH price is attempting to break through the upper boundary of the downward channel and the horizontal resistance level. If it can break through and hold or confirm a pullback, it may bring potential buying opportunities.

3. Altcoin Opportunity Mining

1. NEIROETH (Meme track )

• Market cap of approximately $61 million, total supply of 1 billion, fully circulated with no reserves.
• The 24-hour contract trading volume is 24 times that of spot trading, mainly concentrated on Binance, OKX, and Bybit.
• OI/MC as high as 13.8 times, the contract market is active
• The long-short ratio is close to 1, but large holders maintain more long positions.
• Recently, long positions have continued to increase, and short positions have clearly experienced more liquidations than long positions.

2. ZEREBRO ( AI track )

• Total issuance of 1 billion, fully circulating, market value approximately 76.85 million USD
• The exchanges account for 38% of the top ten holdings, with a relatively dispersed chip distribution.
• The contract open interest increased by over 300% in the last 24 hours, with OI/MC approximately 65%.
• The contract CVD continues to rise, and the funding rate is positive.
• The large holder long-to-short ratio is 1.4, and big capital is bullish.

4. Summary

The current macro environment is improving, and BTC has broken through a key position. Various indicators for ETH show that it is at a critical point of support and resistance, and a trend reversal may be on the horizon. Some alts like NEIROETH and ZEREBRO have shown data fluctuations, and the contract market is active, presenting potential opportunities. Overall, the crypto market may be entering a new round of upward momentum.