Bitcoin is hovering around 130 million won... Concerns over stagnation of short-term rebound factors.

Source: BlockMedia Original Title: [Market Overview] Bitcoin fluctuates around 130 million won… Concerns about stagnation in short-term rebound factors Original Link: Bitcoin is showing low volatility and is hovering around the 130 million won mark. Some analysts suggest that the recent price movements overlap with the lows of the 2022 bear market, predicting that a short-term rebound may not be easy.

As of 8:10 AM on the 1st, Bitcoin(BTC) was traded at 136.38 million won, up 0.24% compared to 9 AM the previous day on domestic digital asset exchanges. On global exchanges, it recorded an increase of 0.33%, reaching $91,054. At the same time, Ethereum(ETH) was up 1.18% at $3,023, and Solana(SOL) was traded at $137.25, up 1.02%.

According to CoinGlass, approximately $16.87 million(, or about 24.8 billion won), worth of positions were liquidated in Bitcoin over the last 24 hours. Of these, approximately 73.67% were short( sell) positions. In the overall digital asset market, about $11.26 million(, or around 165.5 billion won), worth of liquidations occurred.

Bitcoin has continued its bearish trend, currently down 36% from its all-time high, with just one month to go until the end of the year.

The network economist stated, “The movements of Bitcoin in the second half of this year show a trend almost identical to the lows of the bear market in 2022,” adding, “The daily correlation reaches 80%, and the monthly trend overlaps to around 98%.” He further indicated, “If this trend continues, a full-fledged rebound may only be possible after the first quarter of next year.”

There are no clear bullish signals in the Bitcoin futures market either. The annualized premium for the monthly futures is about 4%, which falls short of the commonly assessed neutral range of 5-10%. This is interpreted to mean that there is not much buying demand leveraging.

The options market is also showing a similar sentiment. With put option trades occurring more frequently than call options, investors are continuing to take measures against downside risks. The option premium ratio is also maintaining a level above the neutral benchmark of 1.3 times, indicating that institutional investors are still adopting a conservative stance.

However, some market observers suggest that changes in the macro environment could reopen the possibility of a year-end 'Santa Rally.' Although risky assets have generally experienced corrections over the past month, the inflow of funds into the stock market is showing signs of a rapid recovery.

Since November of last year, approximately $900 billion (, or about 132.3 trillion won ), has flowed into U.S. equity funds, with $450 billion (, or about 66.1 trillion won ), concentrated in the last five months. The report assessed that “stocks are attracting more funds than all other asset classes combined.”

The possibility of an interest rate cut is also a major concern for the market. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve is scheduled to give a lecture at Stanford University on the 1st. There are forecasts that signals for an interest rate cut may emerge during this event.

“As expectations for interest rate cuts rise ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee in December, the recovery of investor sentiment will determine the direction of the stock market,” it was analyzed, “and due to the impact of the shutdown, the release of major indicators has been postponed until after the Federal Open Market Committee, limiting the data available for the market to reference.”

Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index, which reflects the investment sentiment in the digital asset market, remained unchanged at 28 points, indicating fear, just like the previous day. The Fear and Greed Index means that the closer it is to 0, the stronger the selling pressure from investors, and the closer it is to 100, the higher the tendency to buy.