National bank license approval imminent, XRP's turning point from a trading asset to financial infrastructure has arrived

Ripple’s application for a national bank license is nearing completion. According to the latest news, the application began in July 2025 and received conditional approval in December 2025. Once officially operational, Ripple National Trust Bank will become a member institution of the Federal Reserve System, which means that the identity and application scenarios of XRP will undergo structural changes. Based on this, market analysts predict that by early 2027, the reasonable price range for XRP could be between $10 and $15.

The Practical Significance of the National Bank License

From Regulatory Recognition to Identity Upgrade

Ripple has chosen to apply for a federal-level national bank license rather than a state-level license. This choice is crucial. A federal license means its operations will be directly supervised by federal regulators, allowing for unified nationwide operations without having to navigate differing state compliance requirements.

The proposed institution will be named Ripple National Trust Bank, positioned as a trust bank focusing on asset custody, trust services, and asset protection. More importantly, this bank will be listed as a member institution of the Federal Reserve System. This status will enable Ripple to directly access the U.S. financial system and utilize Fed-related infrastructure, providing higher-level regulatory backing for its service institutions and the management of stablecoin RLUSD reserves.

The Entry Barriers for Institutions Are Lowered

From the perspective of institutional investors, holding a national bank license constitutes strong regulatory recognition, helping to lower the compliance barriers for institutions using XRP. Previously, many institutions were conservative about cryptocurrencies mainly due to unclear regulatory status. Now, with Ripple becoming a licensed financial institution, the legal risks associated with institutional participation are significantly reduced.

Combined with the latest market data, this trend is already beginning to show signs. XRP’s current price is $2.28, with a 7-day increase of 21.86%. Exchange balances have fallen to the lowest in eight years, typically indicating that holders are transferring tokens to cold wallets for long-term holding. Meanwhile, the U.S. XRP spot ETF has seen continuous net inflows, and institutional funds’ involvement has given this rally more confidence.

The Logical Support for Price Targets

Fixed Supply and Growing Demand Fundamentals

Google AI has evaluated the potential impact of Ripple’s full-year operation of the national bank. Its core logic is: if Ripple can promote the actual use of XRP in cross-border settlement and liquidity management through the banking system, demand could continue to grow under a fixed supply scenario.

XRP has a total supply of 10 billion tokens, with approximately 6.068 billion in circulation. Under the condition of relatively fixed supply, if institutional adoption continues to increase, demand for XRP will be strongly supported.

The Rationality of the $10 Target in 2027

Based on the assumption of steady growth in institutional adoption, the model forecast provided by Google AI indicates that by early 2027, the reasonable price range for XRP could be between $10 and $15. Reaching $10 would give XRP a market cap close to $600 billion.

Is this target reasonable? From Ripple’s strategic layout, there is some support. In November 2025, Ripple completed a $500 million funding round, valuing the company at about $40 billion. Over the past two years, Ripple has acquired 7 companies, with total acquisitions nearing $4 billion, involving major brokers, stablecoin payment platforms, treasury management systems, digital asset wallets, and custody solutions across multiple fields. This demonstrates Ripple’s effort to build a comprehensive financial services ecosystem.

But there are also limitations to consider

Analyses also point out that higher valuations require XRP to occupy a larger share in the global banking liquidity system, which may take longer. In other words, the $10 target is relatively conservative, while reaching $15 would require more institutional adoption and practical application validation.

The Transformation of Asset Identity

From Trading Asset to Financial Infrastructure

The establishment of Ripple National Bank may promote XRP’s shift from a “trading asset” to a “financial infrastructure asset.” This is not only a change in identity but also a structural change in price logic.

Trading assets’ prices are mainly influenced by market sentiment and short-term liquidity. In contrast, prices of financial infrastructure assets are linked to their actual usage frequency and settlement volume within the financial system. Once XRP becomes a standard settlement tool within the banking system, its value will no longer be speculative but based on actual financial flows.

Current Market Response

From Ripple’s financing progress and market performance, institutions have already begun pricing this transition. Ripple President Monica Long recently reiterated that the company has no IPO plans and will continue to operate privately. This indicates Ripple’s confidence in its development direction, preferring strategic financing and acquisitions over going public to build its ecosystem.

Summary

The approval of Ripple’s national bank license marks an important milestone for the crypto industry. It signifies not only regulatory recognition but also the opening of the institutional adoption door. Based on the assumption of increasing institutional adoption, the target of $10 for XRP by 2027 is somewhat reasonable, but it depends on whether Ripple can truly promote XRP’s application expansion through the banking system. The shift from a trading asset to a financial infrastructure asset is key to XRP’s long-term value.