Анализ первой недели года по биткоину: улучшение структуры после де-левериджа, какую историю рассказывает рынок опционов?

【Block Rhythm】During the week of January 9th, Bitcoin completed the deep deleveraging cycle from year-end, entering 2026 with a cleaner capital structure. From on-chain data, several signals are improving: profit-taking pressure has visibly eased, ETFs have returned to net inflows, futures open interest has reversed its decline and started rising, and institutional participation is gradually recovering.

Most interestingly is the movement in the options market. In contracts expiring in Q1, traders are clustering to buy call options in the 95,000-100,000 USD range, while market makers have conversely turned into net short positions in the same interval — this misalignment is quite subtle, with market makers’ hedging operations potentially providing upward momentum during rallies. Implied volatility is in a phase of low-level recovery, and skew is continuously correcting toward bullish bias, all of which are positive signals for bulls.

Some analysts believe this resembles an “early stage where structure is improving, but sentiment hasn’t become euphoric yet.” If Bitcoin price can stabilize within the short-term holders’ cost range, upward elasticity is expected to gradually release. During this phase, many traders are adjusting their asset allocations to prepare for upcoming volatility.