As MicroStrategy (now renamed Strategy)’s mNAV (market value/net asset value) premium drops to approximately 1.03–1.04 times, this “Bitcoin-native company” is standing at a critical inflection point. The valuation buffer that once supported its stock price to significantly outperform Bitcoin has almost disappeared, implying that Strategy’s future expansion will no longer depend solely on Bitcoin’s upward movement, but rather on whether the capital markets are still willing to continue funding its complex Bitcoin financing structure.
Over the past two years, Strategy has traded at a long-term premium of over 2x to its mNAV, enabling it to issue common stock, convertible bonds, and preferred shares at low cost, then use the proceeds to increase Bitcoin holdings, creating a positive flywheel. But now, with the premium compressed to near parity, this model has clearly slowed down. As of now, the company holds about 670,000 Bitcoins, worth over $63 billion, but the disconnect between its market value and Bitcoin assets has sparked fierce debate over whether it is “undervalued” or whether the “structural risk pricing has been completed.”