SergioTesla
Going live in 1 hour in the public @BrighterData Discord to go over Bitcoin PA and statistics!
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SergioTesla
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$BTC - Video Update
Recorded a longer video update where more in-depth into some important concepts in (data-driven) trading and build up towards my bias for the current month.
00:01 – Recap of last week's rare outcome
Recap of the bullish expectation based on weekly statistics and why the smallest bullish weekly candle in 3 years broke that expectation.
01:02 – How to properly play probabilities in trading
Explaining that even when low-probability events occur, the correct play is still to keep betting on the higher-probability outcomes over time.
02:21 – No 100% certainty in markets
Clar
Recorded a longer video update where more in-depth into some important concepts in (data-driven) trading and build up towards my bias for the current month.
00:01 – Recap of last week's rare outcome
Recap of the bullish expectation based on weekly statistics and why the smallest bullish weekly candle in 3 years broke that expectation.
01:02 – How to properly play probabilities in trading
Explaining that even when low-probability events occur, the correct play is still to keep betting on the higher-probability outcomes over time.
02:21 – No 100% certainty in markets
Clar
BTC0.91%
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GateUser-4db32194
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follow you:About 4.5 years ago I quit my 9-5 to try and make it for myself.
I had worked for 2 years after uni and had saved up enough money to last between 9-12 months, and figured that would have to do.
I was 28 at the time, and I realized I had a window of opportunity that was closing on me. The risk becomes greater as the years and responsibilities accumulate.
So when I get told I took a big risk (heard that a lot), I would argue that depends on how you look at the risk.
The risk of trying was this: running out of money, and ending up stuck in a worse job.
This is the risk that might instill enough
I had worked for 2 years after uni and had saved up enough money to last between 9-12 months, and figured that would have to do.
I was 28 at the time, and I realized I had a window of opportunity that was closing on me. The risk becomes greater as the years and responsibilities accumulate.
So when I get told I took a big risk (heard that a lot), I would argue that depends on how you look at the risk.
The risk of trying was this: running out of money, and ending up stuck in a worse job.
This is the risk that might instill enough
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A 31 year-old husband and father of 2. Absolutely heartbreaking.
Rest in peace, Charlie Kirk.
Rest in peace, Charlie Kirk.
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Interesting
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$BTC
You know what a Monday open dump or pump means by now: it leaves behind a bad Monday high (or low).
We can see from the statistics that - just like last week but when with the pump - the current weekly high is a bad weekly high.
- 89% of weeks form their P1 later
- 91% of weekly P1s have a bigger wick
Given the dump is into range discount areas, that makes for a very interesting play to take out the weekly high.
As always, I'm going to give the market 1 or 2 more days to gather some data and see from there.
You know what a Monday open dump or pump means by now: it leaves behind a bad Monday high (or low).
We can see from the statistics that - just like last week but when with the pump - the current weekly high is a bad weekly high.
- 89% of weeks form their P1 later
- 91% of weekly P1s have a bigger wick
Given the dump is into range discount areas, that makes for a very interesting play to take out the weekly high.
As always, I'm going to give the market 1 or 2 more days to gather some data and see from there.
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$BTC
Now that price took out the weekly and monthly high, things are looking very good for continued upside into price discovery.
Weekly Timeframe
- Only 8% of weeks would take out the weekly low
- 97.6% of bullish weeks move higher
- The 90% and 80% confidence targets are at 125.2 and 125.6k respectively: price discovery
Monthly Timeframe
- Only 12% of months would take out the monthly low
- 100% of bullish months see further displacement
- Monthly 90% confidence target is at 131k
Given that the weekly will most likely be bullish, the risk of taking out the monthly low will most likely be eve
Now that price took out the weekly and monthly high, things are looking very good for continued upside into price discovery.
Weekly Timeframe
- Only 8% of weeks would take out the weekly low
- 97.6% of bullish weeks move higher
- The 90% and 80% confidence targets are at 125.2 and 125.6k respectively: price discovery
Monthly Timeframe
- Only 12% of months would take out the monthly low
- 100% of bullish months see further displacement
- Monthly 90% confidence target is at 131k
Given that the weekly will most likely be bullish, the risk of taking out the monthly low will most likely be eve
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$BTC
I would not get FOMO here on the LTF. As we know from statistics: Monday open pumps can not be trusted more often than not. We see that now as well:
- 82% of weekly P1s are put after the first 2 trading hours of the week
- 90% of weekly P1s (the low) have a bigger wick
- 75% P1 Flip Risk
So all in all the current weekly low is a very low probability pivot. It can hold in very bullish environments, but I would only bet on that when there are more confirmations (e.g. low % flip risk).
A move down to take out the weekly open makes a lot of sense, statistically speaking.
I remain my HTF bu
I would not get FOMO here on the LTF. As we know from statistics: Monday open pumps can not be trusted more often than not. We see that now as well:
- 82% of weekly P1s are put after the first 2 trading hours of the week
- 90% of weekly P1s (the low) have a bigger wick
- 75% P1 Flip Risk
So all in all the current weekly low is a very low probability pivot. It can hold in very bullish environments, but I would only bet on that when there are more confirmations (e.g. low % flip risk).
A move down to take out the weekly open makes a lot of sense, statistically speaking.
I remain my HTF bu
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Imagine being a perma bear on this asset.
I enjoy some intentional mental suffering as much as the next man, but perma-bears just hate life and money.
I enjoy some intentional mental suffering as much as the next man, but perma-bears just hate life and money.
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We're entering the stage of the cycle where most people will start over-rotating their spot portfolio positions trying to maximize gains.
My spot strategy is simple: I will simply hold my current spot holdings until I sell them for fiat. No rotations.
I'm pretty sure that by the end of the cycle, this strategy will have outperformed 95% of people constantly rotating their spot positions.
Over-rotation is often a form of greed. A skilled few people will be able to do it very effectively, but for me I know small/micro caps are not my expertise.
So I'm staying in my lane and am more than happy w
My spot strategy is simple: I will simply hold my current spot holdings until I sell them for fiat. No rotations.
I'm pretty sure that by the end of the cycle, this strategy will have outperformed 95% of people constantly rotating their spot positions.
Over-rotation is often a form of greed. A skilled few people will be able to do it very effectively, but for me I know small/micro caps are not my expertise.
So I'm staying in my lane and am more than happy w
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$ETH
Weekly confidence targets in case the weekly low holds:
- 90% of bullish weeks have enough displacement to reach 3174
- 80% of bullish weeks have enough displacement to reach 3218
- 70% of bullish weeks have enough displacement to reach 3242
- 60% of bullish weeks have enough displacement to reach 3282
- 50% of bullish weeks have enough displacement to reach 3332
Weekly confidence targets in case the weekly low holds:
- 90% of bullish weeks have enough displacement to reach 3174
- 80% of bullish weeks have enough displacement to reach 3218
- 70% of bullish weeks have enough displacement to reach 3242
- 60% of bullish weeks have enough displacement to reach 3282
- 50% of bullish weeks have enough displacement to reach 3332
ETH0.82%
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If you’re in our line of work - sitting behind a computer a lot - staying active is extremely important.
I’ve been working out almost every day for the last 6 years or so and happy to see it’s paying off.
Still room for improvement though so let’s get after it. Time to get my biological Whoop age down some more.
I’ve been working out almost every day for the last 6 years or so and happy to see it’s paying off.
Still room for improvement though so let’s get after it. Time to get my biological Whoop age down some more.
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