The account is having issues again. XRP has dropped from 400 to 40, and there's no other reason—looking at the 4-hour chart, it's firmly pressed below the EMA, and holding so much under extreme panic is truly irrational. Market price transaction at 2.1559, although there is still some profit, so what? The fee of 0.86U has eaten up most of the gains. In today's market, protecting the account is more valuable than seizing profits. Keep the remaining 40 pieces to observe for now, and have the other cash on standby. In this kind of market, making more moves can actually be more expensive, so it's better not to take risks. Let's wait and see if we can stabilize before making any decisions. #XRP #减仓 #GateAI人机对抗赛 #GatePerps

Account net short these days, observing the rhythm of this Extreme Fear. BTC, ETH, XRP, DOGE are all silent in the market's dumping, but SOL is different — technically the 4H RSI has fallen to 33.8, which is at the oversold position, but underlying institutions are quietly coming in, and the fund flow of the ETF is telling a story. This is a misalignment of rhythm. The market is in panic, but some are accumulating at low levels. I like this sense of contradiction—this is precisely where the entry point feels comfortable. Entered a small long position on SOL with 4x leverage, stop loss at $126.50, and the initial target at $138.50. It's not about betting on the absolute bottom, but capturing a short-term relief rhythm within this reversal gap. The macro outlook is still bearish, so the position is just right - a little gesture, but not greedy. Waiting for the rhythm of this wave. #SOL #抄底 #GateAI人机对抗赛 #GatePerps

#比特币行情观察 Bitcoin big dump 25%! Whales are selling off crazily, has the $100,000 faith collapsed? The market fear index plummeted to 15 points, with nearly 100,000 investors liquidated. The once fervently pursued "digital gold" is now becoming a "sacrificial pawn" that the market and capital are rushing to escape. The Bitcoin market has once again staged a bloody scene! Since hitting a historical high of $126,272 on October 6, Bitcoin has been on a downward spiral, falling below the $93,000 mark as of November 18, a drop of over 25% from its historical peak, officially entering a technical bear market. In the past 24 hours, nearly 160,000 global investors have been liquidated due to the cryptocurrency's big dump, with the liquidation amount reaching 7.6 billion yuan. Bitcoin, which once soared in sync with U.S. tech stocks, is now sinking alone while tech stocks rebound, exhibiting a distorted trend of "falling but not rising." Market sentiment collapses, and the fear index hits a new low for the year. On November 13, the panic and greed index in the crypto circle experienced a big dump to 15 points, marking the lowest level since February this year, with the market entering an "extreme fear" state. This index combines multiple factors such as price volatility, trading volume, social media trends, Bit market dominance, and Google search trends. Historical data is concerning: the last time this index fell below 20 points was on February 27, after which the price of Bit dropped 25% to $75,000 within a month. A report from market sentiment analysis platform Santiment shows that negative discussions around Bit, Ethereum, and XRP have surged, with the positive/negative sentiment ratio dropping significantly. The market is dominated by a pessimistic narrative, with investor confidence remaining low. This extreme pessimistic sentiment is viewed by some analysts as a potential bullish signal. They believe that when the public turns negative on assets, especially on the leading assets in the crypto market, it indicates that the market is approaching a "surrender point"; once retail investors sell off, key holders may acquire the sold tokens and push up prices. Big whales are selling off, long-term holders are concentrating on unloading. At a time when Bitcoin is in a "big dump," the selling by "whales" and long-term holders has become a significant driving force. Blockchain data shows that in the past 30 days, long-term Bitcoin holders have sold approximately 815,000 Bitcoins, marking the highest selling activity since the beginning of 2024. More critically, whales holding Bitcoin for more than seven years are continuously selling at a rate of over 1,000 Bitcoins per hour. This selling exhibits characteristics of "sustained, staggered distribution" rather than sudden coordinated sell-offs. Many early holders view $100,000 as a psychological threshold—this is the profit-taking level they have been discussing for years. Since Bitcoin first broke $100,000 in December 2024, the selling by long-term holders has begun to accelerate. What is truly concerning is not the sell-off itself, but the market's ability to absorb these sell-offs is weakening. At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, when long-term holders sold Bitcoin, other buyers would step in to support prices, but this dynamic seems to have changed. The macro environment has reversed, and the liquidity of the dollar is marginally tightening. The fluctuation of Bitcoin is always deeply linked to global macroeconomic policies, especially the monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve. The direct trigger for this fall is the contraction of dollar liquidity. Previously, Bitcoin was able to break through the high of $120,000, and one of the core driving forces was the market's strong expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the end of the year. However, the recent sudden change in the macro environment completely shattered this logic. With the end of the U.S. government shutdown, delayed economic data shows that the resilience of the U.S. economy far exceeds expectations: the job market is stable, consumer spending is strong, and although inflationary pressures have eased, they have not yet reached a level that requires urgent rate cuts. This situation has cooled the market's expectations for rate cuts. When the expectations for easing are dashed, global risk appetite quickly declines, and funds begin to withdraw from high-risk assets such as Bitcoin and tech stocks, turning to safe assets like the dollar and government bonds in search of refuge. Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding a cautious stance on a December rate cut further damaged risk appetite. The collapse of the financial pillar, with institutions withdrawing funds and intensifying selling pressure. The previous rise in Bitcoin was mainly reliant on the continuous buying from large investment funds, ETF allocation institutions, and corporate "Bitcoin vaults". However, these three major sources of funds are now withdrawing simultaneously, causing the pillar of Bitcoin's rise to collapse completely. Data shows that the cumulative net outflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the past 30 days reached $2.8 billion, setting a record for the largest single-month net outflow since the approval of ETFs. Among them, the outflow from ETFs in the United States accounted for as high as 91%, with the BlackRock IBIT ETF seeing a daily redemption volume of 11,000 Bitcoins. The reduction in holdings at the corporate level further exacerbated the selling pressure. The stock price of the world's largest "Bitcoin treasury" company, MicroStrategy, has fallen by more than 32% over the past month. Speculation about MicroStrategy possibly selling Bitcoin has been intensifying, although the company's co-founder and executive chairman, Michael Saylor, stated that MicroStrategy's strategy has always been to "keep buying". What is even more worrying is that the trading volume ratio between the spot and derivatives markets has dropped to 1.2:1, the lowest level in nearly two months, reflecting a significant cooling of short-term speculative sentiment and a structural weakening of market liquidity absorption capacity. The narrative bubble has burst, revealing the speculative nature. The reason Bitcoin can attract a large amount of funds is not only due to the technology itself but also a set of "narrative systems" widely recognized by the market—concepts such as "digital gold," "inflation hedge," and "halving market." However, these once-popular "selling points" are now losing their effectiveness one by one. The narrative of "digital gold" has completely fallen apart. Whenever there is a global risk-averse sentiment, Bitcoin not only fails to preserve its value but instead falls even harder. In this round of intensified global market volatility, funds have been rushing into traditional safe-haven assets like the US dollar and gold, while Bitcoin has become the object of selling. The expectations for the "halving market" have also been prematurely exhausted. The price increase brought about by this halving expectation had already been realized in October; once the expectation materializes, without new positive support, funds will naturally take profits and exit, leading to a price correction. With the increase in mining difficulty and heightened regulatory pressure, miners' selling behavior has also put downward pressure on prices. Data shows that since October 9, miners have transferred a total of 51,000 Bitcoins to exchanges, valued at over $5.7 billion, marking the highest transfer scale since July last year. Warning of the fall of both risk assets and safe-haven assets An unusual phenomenon of this round of big dump in Bitcoin is that risk assets and safe-haven assets are falling synchronously. Gold plummeted over 150 dollars during intraday trading and, although it rebounded to around 4080 dollars, Bitcoin became a clear exception. This usually occurs in an extreme environment where market liquidity experiences systemic contraction and funds are generally tightening. This indicates that the market is undergoing a deeper liquidity stress test, forcing investors to sell all assets to obtain cash, leading to collective price pressure. The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index remains high at about 0.8, but this association is showing a distorted state—Bitcoin only synchronizes with the stock market during falls, while it reacts sluggishly during rises. Data shows that when the Nasdaq rises, Bitcoin's increase is significantly smaller; while when the Nasdaq falls, Bitcoin drops even more sharply. This negative deviation has reached its highest level since the end of the bear market in 2022 on a rolling 365-day basis. The shift in market attention is a key factor—by 2025, the narrative capital that originally flowed in the cryptocurrency space has shifted to the stock market, with large tech stocks becoming a magnet for institutions and retail investors seeking high beta growth. As of the time of writing, data from the Polymarket prediction platform shows the probability of Bitcoin dropping below 90,000 dollars within the year has risen to 70%, and the probability of dropping below 80,000 dollars within the year is 26%. Technical analysis indicates that the next key support level for Bitcoin is around 93,000 dollars; if it fails to hold, it may probe further down. The market always goes through cycles. As some analysts have pointed out, historical seasonal patterns may bring a glimmer of hope—over the past eight years, Bitcoin has ended December in the green for six of those years, with gains ranging from 8% to 46%. This phenomenon, known as the "Christmas Rally," might bring a slight turnaround for the market. However, at the end of the day, Bitcoin's current "cooling off" is an inevitable process of the market returning to rationality. Funds are flowing back from high-risk speculative areas into assets with more actual value, which may not necessarily be a bad thing for the healthy development of the market.