The fog around inflation just got thicker. A senior Fed official recently warned that price trends are becoming harder to read—partly because government shutdown chaos left key economic data riddled with gaps. Here's the bind: while the job market shows signs of cooling, core services inflation refuses to budge. That stubborn price pressure in services is making policymakers sweat, even as other parts of the economy soften.

So what does this mean for rate cuts? The message is clear: proceed with extreme caution. Any move to ease rates now feels like navigating without a map. The data blackout couldn't have come at a worse time, and the Fed knows it. They're stuck weighing incomplete signals against persistent inflation in the exact sectors that matter most. Until the picture clears, don't expect aggressive policy shifts—uncertainty is the new baseline.