When BlackRock's Digital Asset Chief Valued XRP: A Forgotten Price Model Worth Revisiting

Here’s a plot twist nobody talks about: the person now heading BlackRock’s digital assets division used to work at Ripple. And before he switched sides in early 2018, he co-authored a valuation research that put XRP’s fundamental value between $1.59-$8.23—with a bull-case scenario hitting double digits.

Robert Mitchnick’s name might not ring bells, but his current position does. As BlackRock’s head of digital assets, he’s literally shaping how traditional finance approaches crypto. The research question becomes: does his old analysis still matter?

The Numbers That Slipped Under The Radar

The model was methodical. Mitchnick’s team assigned a 25% probability to XRP’s “success case” scenario and 0% to failure (meaning worst-case floor at $0). The middle ground? That $1.59-$8.23 range based on legitimate value drivers—not FOMO.

For context, when this dropped, XRP was trading between $0.49-$3.72. So even the conservative estimate suggested 3x upside from the mid-range.

The high-end prediction hit double digits. The specific number? Around $32.91, based on applying the same framework that valued Bitcoin as severely undervalued at that time.

Why This Matters Now

1. Institutional credibility: The author now sits at one of the world’s largest asset managers. His fingerprints are on BlackRock’s digital strategy.

2. Ripple connection: BlackRock hasn’t launched an XRP ETF (yet), but the infrastructure play is interesting when a Ripple alumnus controls digital asset direction.

3. The framework holds: The analysis wasn’t based on hype—it modeled use cases, adoption curves, and comparative valuations. Those fundamentals haven’t disappeared.

The Catch

Research from 2018 needs context. XRP’s regulatory status, Ripple’s business traction, and market cycles have all evolved. But the underlying methodology—assigning probabilities to success/failure, stress-testing valuations—remains sound.

What’s wild is how few people discuss this public analysis in the current market cycle. Whether you’re bullish or skeptical on XRP, the fact that BlackRock’s current digital chief once published a structured case for $1.59-$32.91 valuations is… worth knowing.