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#Gate10月透明度报告出炉 Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley tweeted sharing observations on the four-year cycle phenomenon, with a common viewpoint: people believe in the four-year cycle and think that Bitcoin prices will fall in 2026.
First-order effect: People will sell in 2025 to avoid the falling market year.
Second-order effect: The sell-off in 2025 caused 2025 to be a year of fall, breaking the four-year cycle.
Third-order effect: Not yet defined in 2026, the four-year cycle is broken.
Hunter Horsley previously stated that the four-year cycle model is based on the old era of cryptocurrency. Since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF and the appointment of new management, a whole new market structure has emerged: new participants, new dynamics, and new reasons for people to buy and sell. It is very likely that we have already experienced nearly six months of a bear market, and the bear market is about to end.