#BTC Thoughts and Plan Ahead

I still don't think that the cycle top is in, and even if that is the case it would be too dumb to call it here.

Why?

1️⃣ Making the bold call that the top was in at 125k and taking profits would make sense. However, the worst case here is a death cross rally to the 200-day SMA at 110k.

2️⃣ Even though Bitcoin is looking extremely weak here, we have not even confirmed it with 2 weekly closes below the 50 week SMA.

3️⃣ This cycle has been completely different. Bitcoin had a new ATH before the halving. And so far Bitcoin has brought 0% YTD profit in the post-halving (post-election) year. This has never happened before. Because of this, I think the cycle is slightly delayed because of the tariffs, the trade war and the longest government shutdown in the US history.

4️⃣ On Friday Nasdaq tapped the 50-day SMA and bounced above it. Although many people think that AI is a bubble, it is actually one of the few things that work well in the US economy and for that reason Nasdaq still has fuel left for another move up.

5️⃣ The government shutdown ended just after it caused a liquidity crisis. The NY Fed just had an emergency meeting with firms about key lending facility. The US broke the economy therefore they need to fix it by injecting liquidity into it. In the long run this will cause more trouble, but for another leg up for Bitcoin, this is exactly the kind of stimulus we need.

For all those reasons I don't think the top is in.

What is the plan?

I think the path is simple.

Bitcoin will have a quick recovery in the next 2 days to 100k and likely break above it. Can it go down to 90-92k first? Possible but NOT likely.

The weekly close will most probably be above the 50W SMA at 103k.

The death cross rally will lead Bitcoin to 110k and overshoot it to 112-113k to sweep the liquidity.

Once people start flexing on X with their profits and posting "We are SO Back", Bitcoin will go down for a retest of the 50W SMA. This step might be skipped because we are so late in the cycle. Or the correction might be from a higher price to the 50 day SMA instead.

Then the final run to a new ATH around 135k will start.

This is still my base case.

Even if it does not happen, Bitcoin is going to run to 110k, so I repeat, it doesn't make sense to flip bearish here.