#加密市场回调 The data vacuum period has arrived, what will the Fed do this time? The cards in the crypto market are actually already on the table.

Let's talk about the troublesome issues from the data perspective: the October non-farm payrolls will be directly released together with November's, and the November non-farm data that was originally supposed to be out before the December 10th interest rate meeting? It will have to be delayed until after the meeting to be seen. This is awkward—without the latest employment data during the meeting, it's like making decisions in the dark, making it difficult to be aggressive. What about the September non-farm payrolls to be released tonight? That's already two months old, it might stir some emotions but expecting it to change anything? Not very realistic.

Looking at the internal attitude and what the market thinks: The minutes from the October FOMC meeting have already revealed a rift—some are calling for a 25 basis point cut, while the majority insist on holding steady. Now, with data missing and no unified front internally, the market has already made it clear: the probability of no movement in December on Polymarket is marked at 75%, and the CME interest rate futures consensus is also at 72%, so the idea of a rate cut is basically dead.

What kind of play is likely to be performed in December? Among the two paths, "keeping interest rates unchanged + softening the tone" should be the safest choice. Why this combination? Powell's consistent style is to seek stability; if the data is not strong enough, he won't act rashly, but he will definitely leave room in his statements to soothe the market. On the other hand, global liquidity tightening has already started to stir—U.S. stocks are volatile, the crypto market has experienced a significant drop, and the Fed cannot pretend not to see it; being tough is obviously not a wise option.

The policy swings caused by data interruptions are quietly rewriting the expected logic of the crypto market. As the Fed shifts from "unclear" to "conservative but not aggressive," the way assets are priced may have to be recalculated. $BTC $ETH