Bitcoin Halving Countdown: Why Institutions Are Paying Attention to This Event

Around April 2024, Bitcoin will undergo its fourth halving—the block reward for miners will be cut from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. It may sound like just a technical event, but behind it lies market dynamics and opportunities for wealth.

What Does Halving Mean

Simply put: Bitcoin’s total supply is fixed at 21 million, and to control inflation, every 210,000 blocks mined (about every 4 years), the reward for miners is halved.

2009 mining reward was 50 BTC → 2012 became 25 BTC → 2016 became 12.5 BTC → 2020 became 6.25 BTC → 2024 becomes 3.125 BTC

This is a rule hard-coded into Bitcoin’s code and cannot be changed.

Why the Market is Hyping It

Supply Side: The rate of new BTC entering the market is cut in half. If demand stays the same or increases, increased scarcity logically pushes the price up.

Historical Review:

• 1st halving (2012): $12.35 on the day → $127 after 150 days (10x increase)
• 2nd halving (2016): $650.63 on the day → $758.81 after 150 days (15% increase)
• 3rd halving (2020): $8,740 on the day → $10,943 after 150 days (25% increase)

It seems there’s always a price rise, but the pattern is:

1. 12-22 months before the halving enters an accumulation phase (small rise or sideways movement)
2. 10-15 months after the halving is the bull market phase
3. Then comes a long bear market adjustment

But this time has variables: Now there’s institutional money entering (spot ETF applications, banks laying out plans), and a different macro environment (expectations of Fed rate cuts), so you can’t just copy past performance.

Impact on Different People

Miners are most troubled: With rewards halved, small miners may be eliminated, and large mining pools will further increase their market share. Unless BTC price rises accordingly, mining profits will be directly hit. Past data shows mining difficulty doesn’t drop significantly, because big miners choose to tough it out, betting on the next bull run.

Investors are most excited: If the halving triggers a bull market, those who buy in early can reap big gains. But beware: the halving itself is known information, so the market may price it in early and even dump during the event.

Altcoins will follow the rise: When BTC rises, the entire market takes off. Historical data shows that the best time to invest in altcoins is 8-10 months before the halving (when market confidence is at its lowest).

Key Numbers and Predictions

According to the S2F model: The 2024 high could reach $200,000, and by May 2025 it could hit $460,000

Institutional forecasts summary:

• Pantera Capital: Will reach $150,000 in the next cycle
• Standard Chartered: Will reach $120,000 before the end of 2024
• Ark Invest CEO: Could reach $1.5 million by 2030

But note: Each bull market’s gains have been shrinking (1st time 10x → 2nd time 15% → 3rd time 25%), indicating the market is becoming more rational, and future upside may be less than expected.

What Should You Do Now

Aggressive: Go long/short with futures, taking advantage of volatility. But leverage magnifies risk, so always set stop-losses.

Conservative: Start buying in batches now (DCA strategy), no need to time the market, averaging your cost to reduce risk.

Lazy: Hold BTC for annualized returns, or participate in platform structured financial products.

Arbitrage: Watch for P2P market price discrepancies; price differences for BTC across regions and platforms may offer opportunities.

Final Thoughts

The halving itself isn’t a silver bullet—it’s just another node in the crypto market cycle. What truly determines BTC’s price is institutional inflows, macro policies, technological progress, and market sentiment. But it’s undeniable that every halving is a chance for the market to reprice.

The key is: Find your own strategy, control your risk, and don’t go all-in on a gamble.