#ETH价格走势解读 The Fed Chair Powell is standing at a crossroads in his career. With the interest rate decision in December approaching, his committee is showing the most severe division of opinions in its eight-year tenure.

Conflicting economic signals make decision-making particularly tricky. Weak employment data, yet inflation firmly stays above 3%, this combination gives off a whiff of "stagflation." Powell holds two options, neither of which is easy to pursue.

The first approach: lower interest rates in line with market sentiment, while simultaneously releasing a strong signal of "enough is enough." This tactic was used in 2019—first taking a step back, then hitting the pause button. It provides an explanation to the market while maintaining policy strength. The second approach is more conservative: simply wait until January next year to discuss it, until the chaos of the government shutdown has passed, and make judgments based on more complete data. However, doing so may allow internal differences to continue to ferment.

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The good news is that the core circle has begun to take sides. Williams from the New York Fed made it clear that now is the window for adjustment, and policy needs to move more quickly toward neutral levels. Daly from the San Francisco Fed also followed suit, stating that the risk of a collapse in the labor market is far scarier than a rebound in inflation. These statements have directly pushed the market's bets on a rate cut in December to 70%.

But the voices of the opposition are equally loud. Several regional Fed officials are focused on service sector inflation, feeling that the current interest rate level is already "moderate" enough, and any further easing could undo previous efforts. Even Boston Fed President Collins, who supported a rate cut in October, is now beginning to hesitate.

Powell has to find a balance between employment pressures and the stubbornness of inflation. This decision is not just about adjusting an interest rate; it is the ultimate test of whether the Fed can maintain its decision-making authority in the face of conflicting data. The choice in December could become a defining moment in his entire policy career.