Recently, the trend of ETH has made many people start to feel anxious. Looking back at the market in November, the pullback around the 9th from about 3655 to the direct drop below 2620 on the 21st was indeed quite rapid.

From a technical perspective, several signals indicate: the 4-hour MACD has formed a death cross and is continuing to widen, while the daily RSI has already fallen into the oversold zone. More critically, the support level at 2340 has not been held; following this trend, testing below 2000 USD is also a possibility. Of course, the market is always full of uncertainties, and some have used wave theory and on-chain data to make projections, believing that there may be greater adjustment space in the medium term.

Let's talk about BTC again. Although there has been a pullback in the short term, on-chain data shows an interesting phenomenon - the holdings of whales are indeed increasing, indicating that large funds are taking resistance actions at certain levels, but the profit ratio has not yet reached that extreme bottom level. In mid-October, someone warned about the risk, and as a result, it really fell to around 80524 on November 21.

The current situation is quite delicate at this position: if it falls below 83441, it may open up the testing range of 75000-79293. Some analysts are also looking at the market structure using the Wyckoff accumulation model, believing it may be following the Spring-Test-LPS rhythm. According to certain interpretations of wave theory, if this is a rebound wave, the time window could be 2-3 months, with a target reaching the position of 108,000.

On the timeline, December 14th and January 18th next year may be observation windows, and by then the direction will be clearer.

That being said, technical analysis becomes support and resistance naturally as more people look at it. How the market moves still needs to be judged in conjunction with actual trends and capital flows; don’t be too rigid in your thinking.