#数字货币市场回升 Last night the US stock market opened with a warning, but even more magical things were yet to come.

The economic data for September has just been released - the month-on-month retail sales growth was only 0.2%, which is half of the market expectation of 0.4%. Consumers are really tightening their belts in the face of high prices. The year-on-year PPI is 2.7%, barely holding the passing line.

But guess what? The interest rate futures market instantly got excited, with the odds of a rate cut in December shooting up to 80%. The softer the data, the firmer the rate cut expectations, this logic is a bit mind-boggling.

Currently, the market is actually focused on two lines: on one side is the new wave of AI frenzy driven by Google's Gemini 3, causing tech stocks to stir again; on the other side is the upcoming Black Friday and Thanksgiving shopping season, and it's hard to say whether consumer spending can be boosted.

The Federal Reserve is busier over there. Board member Mester has already spoken out—unemployment is rising, the economy is slowing down, and rates need to be lowered. But Powell clearly has a more complicated stance; even if rates are indeed lowered, he must leave some "hawkish" room in his wording, fearing that the market will be overly optimistic.

Do you remember how the US dollar rose instead of falling after the interest rate cut in September? If there's another cut in December, will it be the same script again? The key is not whether to cut interest rates, but how the Federal Reserve plays its rhetoric.

Soft data, hard expectations, and the variables of the AI frenzy plus shopping season - the Federal Reserve is walking a tightrope between recession and inflation. Do you think there will be a rate cut in December? How will the dollar perform?

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