BTC Technical Analysis: Short-term rebound under pressure, medium-term pullback risk intensifies

From the perspective of the 12H level technical pattern, the signal of the MACD indicator turning from a golden cross to a death cross has appeared, indicating that the short-term rebound is likely nearing its end. The market may start a deep correction based on the recent rebound high, with a core correction space of approximately 27,000 points. Currently, two key scenarios need to be monitored:

- Method A (Strong rebound followed by a pullback): If the rebound touches the 12H level BOLL upper band at 96820 and faces resistance, it will officially start the next wave of decline, with the pullback target aiming at around 69820 - this position is not only the precise point of the 27000 point pullback but also forms a strong support resonance with the peak of the last bull market, and the support logic from a technical perspective is clear.
- Method B (Direct decline after a weak rebound): If it encounters resistance near 89100 and then consolidates horizontally, it is highly probable that it will break down directly afterwards, with the pullback target looking towards the 62100 area — this position is exactly the halving point of the highest point in this bull market at 126200, which belongs to a strong emotional support range and is also a key watershed for the medium-term trend.

In the short term, the market's long and short game has entered a stalemate stage, with obvious characteristics of oscillation and consolidation. In terms of operation, it is necessary to adhere to the cautious principle of "taking one step at a time" and not blindly chase high prices. Analyzing from the perspective of rebound repair, in the downtrend from 107500 on November 11 to 80600 on November 21, the Fibonacci retracement levels present clear targets: 0.382 level at 90850, 0.5 level at 94000, and 0.618 level at 97200. Currently, the market has not yet reached the basic rebound target of 90850, and the trading volume continues to be insufficient. Coupled with the MACD divergence signal, the probability of rebounding to 97200 has significantly decreased.

From a mid-term perspective, only after BTC completes a 50% depth correction is there a hope to trigger a strong rebound wave in the range of 25,000-30,000 points. This interval has a very high risk-reward ratio for bottom-fishing and is a layout window that deserves close attention going forward.
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