Recently, the market has been discussing the interest rate cut in December, but Nick Timiraos, a journalist from the Wall Street Journal known as the "Fed's mouthpiece," poured a bucket of cold water on it—things are not that simple.

Let's first talk about why everyone is suddenly so excited. The expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut once soared to nearly 80%, mainly because inflation data is indeed cooling down. Although producer prices occasionally fluctuate due to energy and food prices, core inflation is steadily declining. More importantly, some officials are concerned that the labor market is weakening, fearing that not cutting rates will drag down the economy. Market sentiment is that "it's not a question of whether to cut rates, but when to cut them."

But Timiraos said, wait, a rate cut in December is not a done deal.

**The biggest trouble is the data vacuum.**

The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, and the Fed is now driving blindfolded. Without the latest inflation reports and employment data, the hawkish faction has reason to question: Is inflation rebounding? Has inflation in the service sector cooled down? Is the labor market really weakening?

Data loss has left the decision-makers in a dilemma.

**Internally, it is actually divided into three factions.**

Timiraos revealed that opinions within the Fed are far from as unified as they may appear. Some are eager to cut interest rates to stabilize the economy, while others believe inflation hasn't been completely brought down yet and are hesitant to ease, and there are those who are waiting for more evidence. In this state of division, the December meeting may be more contentious than the market expects.

So for the crypto market, don't just fixate on the excitement of interest rate cut expectations; the uncertainty of this policy shift is actually quite high. The turnaround in funding may not come that quickly.