Crypto is transitioning from a "venture capital ecosystem betting on concepts" to a "macro asset tradable by institutions," with the driving force shifting from retail investors to institutions. Prices are increasingly influenced by macro factors rather than the four-year Bitcoin Halving cycle.

Cryptocurrency is transitioning from the past ecosystem of "venture capital dominance + retail investor sentiment driven" to a true macro asset class.

The power of retail investors chasing highs has significantly diminished, while institutional funds are becoming the structural dominant force in the market. They have a longer investment horizon and care more about liquidity stability, reduced volatility, and portfolio allocation. This has led to a shift in the pricing of crypto assets from "narrative-driven" to "macro liquidity-driven."

Currently, the price fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, especially for compliant assets dominated by $BTC , are increasingly determined by macro variables such as interest rates, Federal Reserve policies, inflation, employment, and ETF fund flows, rather than the BTC Halving cycle we were familiar with in the past.

Cryptocurrency assets still face issues of uneven depth and structurally low liquidity, but for institutions, this is actually the biggest source of profit. It is also worth noting that institutions do not have a pessimistic long-term outlook; some even believe that under the structural backdrop of increasing institutional allocation and supply contraction, BTC could potentially see a target price of $240,000 in the long term.

Overall, the crypto market is transitioning from an emotional cycle to a macro cycle, which means the rhythm will become more "slow variables determine direction, fast variables determine fluctuations," rather than the past model completely relying on retail investor sentiment to drive it.
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