#美联储恢复降息进程 BTC Will this wave reverse? The funding rate has already provided the answer.

Recently, I have observed a very interesting phenomenon: the Bitcoin funding rate has turned negative. Normally, this means that short sellers have to pay a premium to long holders, which usually occurs during times of market sentiment collapse. However, looking back at historical trends, you will find that this situation is often not a precursor to a crash, but rather more like a signal for a phase of bottoming out.

The contradiction arises – short sellers have placed a massive amount of stop-loss orders above 92K, 94K, and even 98K. At the same time, accumulation address data shows that demand surged to an all-time high of 365,000 BTC on November 23, an increase of more than 40% compared to 254,000 at the beginning of the month. In translation, this means: speculators are frantically shorting, while long-term capital is quietly hoarding.

I checked the liquidation heat map, and the atmosphere is more intense. There are over $8.4 billion in short liquidation ammunition piled up around 98K, while there is only a $2.6 billion long defense line below at 80K. What does this mean? Every time the price rises by a thousand dollars, it could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations.

The rebound momentum is still there, but whether it can hold above 93K is a watershed moment. This level is both a previous support and resistance point, and it determines whether this rebound is fleeting or a trend reversal. That said, the overall sentiment is still quite weak. If it breaks below the 86700 defense line, it is highly likely to test the 80K mark again.

In the next few days, keep a close watch on the funding rate game in the 94K-96K range, as this price level is the true core of the battlefield. The pace of changes will be rapid, so everyone should manage their positions well.

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