#数字资产市场观察 71% of the $BTC circulating supply is still profitable—sounds good? But the problem lies exactly here.

The ones who are currently dumping are those long-term holders who once held on tightly. The price level of $100,000 is not just a randomly drawn line; it represents the historical fair price of BTC, essentially the premium central point of the average cost for all coin holders, a stabilizing force for market valuation.

Looking back at the scripts of the past two rounds of bull and bear markets, the pattern is remarkably consistent: once this fair line is broken, the subsequent rebounds cannot stand firmly, and the market will slide directly from a consolidation phase into a deep bear market. There is no luck involved.

Tom Lee's change of attitude is more intriguing. This analyst, who previously called for a target of $250,000, has recently rarefully admitted that that number is basically unrealistic, and has changed his tune to say that reaching $100,000 within the year would be good enough. As for whether it can reach a new high? "Maybe."

Even a dead bull is starting to leave a way out; just think about how strong this signal is.

So what has 100,000 USD become now? It's not a technical indicator, it's the life and death symbol of the market. If it holds, there is still something to discuss about the continuation of the bull market; if it doesn't hold, what follows may be a long struggle.

Global investors are focused on this number, and every fluctuation of the K-line is redefining the rules of the game for the coming years. In this battle of offense and defense, no one can stand idly by.