Fed Rate Cut Hopes Evaporate: What This Means for Bitcoin

The Federal Reserve’s December rate-cut odds just collapsed from 98% a month ago to just 30% today—and Bitcoin is feeling the pain.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

CME’s FedWatch tool shows the dramatic shift:

• October: 98% chance of a December cut
• Last week: 50%
• Today: 30%

Prediction markets are all over the place (Kalshi at 70%, Polymarket at 67%, CME at 30%), but they all agree on one thing: uncertainty is at peak levels.

Why the sudden flip? The government shutdown has frozen crucial economic data. The October jobs report won’t be released—marking the longest data blackout in modern U.S. history. No employment data. No inflation readings. No fresh signals.

Meanwhile, Fed officials are split. Some want to pause rate cuts; others still favor a 25 bps cut. Translation: the central bank has no consensus.

Bitcoin Takes the Hit

BTC dropped below $89,000 Wednesday and is now trading around $91,700 (up just 0.8%)—barely holding above the psychological barrier. The technical setup looks grim:

• 50-day EMA crossed below 200-day EMA → classic “death cross”
• BTC broke below the 365-day moving average
• Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 16 → “extreme fear” territory

Where’s the Bottom?

Analyst Benjamin Cowen warns: “If no bounce occurs within the next week, we likely see another dump to $75,000 before a larger rally.”

The macro picture is bleak. No rate cuts = no liquidity boost = less money flowing into risk assets like crypto. Traders are spooked, and it shows.

Bottom Line

The Fed’s December decision has become a coin flip. Without economic data to guide them, policymakers are flying blind. For crypto, that means expect more volatility through year-end. A December cut would’ve been the bullish catalyst we were hoping for. Instead, we’re bracing for tighter conditions and longer waits.