Bitcoin's Bounce Trade: Here's What The Charts Say

BTC’s been taking a beating lately—we broke below 98k last week and nearly retested 80k. So what’s next? Let’s cut through the noise.

The Big Picture (Weekly)

Here’s the thing: 98k-100k is THE zone right now. As long as we’re trading below it, the structure stays bearish on the weekly, and we can forget about new all-time highs anytime soon. The 75k-84k area is sitting there as support (and it’s a monthly level too), but support alone doesn’t win games—we need structure confirmation. Bottom line: reclaim 98k or expect more downside pressure.

Daily Chart Reality Check

On the daily, it’s been a straight downtrend since 116k. No bullish setups. No relief bounces. Just pain. A 24% dump from 107k to 80k without meaningful relief is rough, and shorts are probably feeling pretty smug right now.

The Bounce Opportunity

But here’s where it gets interesting: after a 24% move with zero bounces, we’re probably due for some short-covering. If BTC can hold 83k-85k on daily closes, we could see relief buying push it toward 90k, possibly even 93k. If we break below that zone? Trade idea’s toast.

The Catch

Even if we bounce to 93k, it changes nothing—we’re still under 98k, still bearish, still waiting. The bounce is just noise until we reclaim that 98k-100k confirmation zone on the weekly. Any relief rally is just a trading opportunity, not a trend reversal.