Stop focusing solely on tech stocks; the real main line of this market cycle has actually never strayed from securities and real estate.

Let's state a fact: Throughout history, every decent bull market has invariably involved brokerage firms as key players. Whether it's a slow bull or a fast bull, they have always been a core support. However, many people now see that brokerages are not experiencing the violent surges like in 2007 or 2014, and they feel that this time is different—this mindset mostly comes from retail investors who are stuck in losing positions, or from newcomers who have never experienced a complete cycle.

Let’s take a look back at the market movement around 924. Three major policies were implemented simultaneously (one directly related to the stock market, and the other two targeted at real estate). So what happened next? The securities sector doubled overall, and real estate took off in sync. This is not just a technical rebound, but a clear starting signal. Those who say that brokerages have lost their bull market attributes must be selectively forgetting.

A true slow bull market is never a steady uphill climb. Look at the Nikkei index, then look at the US stock market — in a complete bull market, the time when prices truly rise may only account for 10%, while the remaining 90% is spent in fluctuations or subtle declines. Missed that critical 10%? No matter how you struggle afterwards, it will feel empty. The current market logic is actually very straightforward: if securities and real estate remain stagnant, the foundation of the bull market cannot stand.

Some may say, aren’t bank stocks and tech stocks also rising? The question is—if the Shanghai Composite Index can’t even hold above 4,000 points, what does this indicate? The wave of market activity during this summer has already provided the answer: it was precisely because the heavyweight sectors such as securities, real estate, and liquor jointly propelled the Shanghai Composite Index that the ChiNext Index surged. Just two months have passed, and many have forgotten about this. If you don’t believe it, take a look back: without the support of these heavyweight sectors, how could bank stocks alone drive up the Shanghai Index, and what would give tech stocks the momentum to rise?

The trading volume is almost back to 1.5 trillion, but the problem arises—if the securities and real estate sectors do not make a move, how can new funds and beginners enter the market if the Shanghai Composite Index cannot break through? Although bank stocks can boost the index, they belong to the defensive sector and lack profit-making effects; tech stocks can at most drive the ChiNext Index, but most beginners are not familiar with this index, making it difficult to attract them.

As the most significant weighted industries in the Shanghai Stock Exchange, securities and real estate often correspond to major macroeconomic policies behind their rise—stimulating the housing market and activating the stock market, essentially signaling the strength of monetary policy and promoting consumption recovery and economic rebound. The stock market and the housing market are both barometers of the economy; if these two markets do not warm up, the market will lack confidence in the future, making any talk of a bull market impossible.

To be honest, there are quite a few people who do not understand financial logic. For ordinary people, if they do not have enough knowledge, staying away from the stock market might be the safest protection.