Last night the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data exploded again - the unemployment rate held firm at 3.5%, with new jobs jumping directly by 260,000. If this data were normal, the US stock market would have plummeted, with interest rate hike expectations soaring. And what happened? Bitcoin remained steady around $58,000, while Ether stayed unmoved at 3,100 points.

Is the market experiencing a collective failure? Or is there something more to it?

In fact, the logic has changed. Although the Federal Reserve says "data-dependent" verbally, the rate meeting in December is the real key event. Traders in the futures market are quite astute; the probability of a rate cut in the first quarter of next year has soared to 68%. The Treasury Department's quarterly refinancing plan announced last week also fell short of expectations, causing U.S. Treasury yields to drop, and the pressure on risk assets was instantly relieved.

What's more interesting is the actions of institutions. The discount of Grayscale's GBTC has narrowed for three consecutive days to a new low for the year, while BlackRock's IBTC continues to see net inflows. This smart money is clearly not just here to watch the excitement; they are positioning themselves in anticipation of a policy shift.

There are a few key points to watch tonight: what hints will Powell's closed-door meeting provide? The window for the SEC's final decision on the VanEck spot ETF has also opened, and the large trades in the options market indicate that the biggest pain points in December are at the Bitcoin 60000 and Ether 3500 levels.

At the crossroads of policy turning points and technological thresholds, should we take action now?