Ganfeng Lithium's chairman just dropped a bombshell: lithium demand could spike 40% in 2026. The market went absolutely mental—China's lithium carbonate futures jumped 9% on Monday and hit their strongest close since June 2024, trading near the upper limit.

Here's the kicker: Li Liangbin reckons lithium carbonate could hit 200,000 yuan per ton if demand accelerates as expected. Carbonate prices are already up 17% this month alone, riding the wave of energy storage hype and projections for stationary battery demand through 2026.

There's more fuel in the fire too. CATL's Jianxiawo mine in Yichun is inching toward restart after being shut since August—this operation normally churns out 65,000 metric tons annually, about 6% of global supply. Any movement on this front could trigger more volatility.

That said, the elephant in the room remains oversupply. Global mined output has exploded 192% since 2020, and even though EV sales hit 17M units last year and are tracking toward 20M this year, production keeps outpacing demand. Analysts warn the imbalance could hang around until 2030+ unless something breaks—delayed projects, supply cuts, or surprise demand.

Bottom line: Sentiment is king in the lithium market right now. One heavyweight exec's bullish call moves billions. But fundamentals suggest this rally could face headwinds if the supply glut doesn't ease.