Behind the 209% rise of Cipher Mining CIFR: Is it a bubble or a true gem?

This Bitcoin mining company has gone crazy this year - with a YTD rise of 209.5%, far surpassing its peers Riot Platforms(36.7%) and Cleanspark(19%). How did they do it?

Core Driver:

• In Q3 2025, mined 629 BTC, revenue of 72 million USD.
• Black Pearl Mining Farm (300MW) has just started full operations, with 36% of its capacity coming from here.
• Energy efficiency reaches 16.8 J/Tah, top level in the industry
• Signed large contracts with AWS and Google: a total of approximately $11.5 billion in long-term contracts ($8.5B for AI hosting + $3B for cloud computing + $5.5B for AWS)

But there are pitfalls here:

• P/S multiple 15.53 times vs industry 2.54 times, valuation is clearly ahead.
• Expected loss of -0.10 USD/share in Q4 2025 (expanded by another 4 cents last month)
• New mining machine depreciation + rising electricity costs, profits under pressure
• Coin price fluctuations directly affect Mining income (Q3 average price $114,400/BTC)

Investment Rating: Hold

To put it simply: the fundamentals are indeed good, supported by long-term contracts, but the valuation has already exceeded expectations. The bearish comments are not entirely unfounded—there are still losses on the books, and the logic of making money relies on future capacity releases. Retail investors currently face significant risks in bottom-fishing; it would be better to wait until the valuation returns to a reasonable range or until the Q4 financial report before taking action.