2025-12-05 17:32:11

I mentioned the bearish logic for this rebound in advance. Whether right or wrong, every experience is nourishment for growth—I don’t make a living by calling trades. My judgment is clear: this is a rebound, not a reversal, and certainly not the start of a major uptrend.

At the time, I made this judgment based on two points:
First, the overall market is currently in a bear market downtrend channel, and rebounds often serve to accumulate momentum for the next round of decline.
Second, the consolidation at the bottom was too brief, with insufficient turnover of positions and inadequate depth of shakeout. Such a structure is unlikely to support a true trend reversal.

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ProofOfNothing

· 7h ago

Is the next round of decline still far off? I'm starting to get anxious. If it's a rebound, just say it's a rebound. Do you really have to sound so technical? I've heard this "insufficient chip turnover" thing several times already—either way, it's all about being trapped. I agree with the point about the bottom coming too quickly; it really doesn't feel like we've shaken out enough. I like your attitude of taking things as they come, right or wrong. It's better than those who just shout slogans. Honestly, it's still hard to see through—it's not that easy to distinguish between a rebound and a reversal. I'm tired of hearing about the bear market channel. When will the decline really stop? The logic looks fine, just hope it doesn't backfire again. The washout isn't deep enough? Then it needs to drop more. Get ready.

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ProbablyNothing

· 12-05 18:02

Bro, this logic really holds up. When the bottom shakeout isn’t deep enough but there’s a hard rebound, it’ll have to make up for it sooner or later. --- A rebound doesn’t equal a reversal. I need to remember this—too many people got tricked by this wave. --- In a bear market channel, rebounds are just bull traps. If the chips haven’t rotated enough and you want to turn things around, it’s tough. --- Well said, way better than those people shouting bull or bear every day. Truly logical analysis is rare. --- I agree that the turnover isn’t sufficient. Feels like the volume is still weak—something’s off. --- This wave does feel a bit shaky—short time frame, messy chips, sooner or later there’s another drop coming. --- I like honest analysis. Right or wrong, at least the logic is clear—way better than the nonsense from those influencers. --- A rapid pump from the bottom is never a good sign. Thinking you can take off without a proper shakeout is just wishful thinking. --- That’s the bear market mentality you need. Even when a rebound comes, you can’t be too optimistic. Playing it safe is the way to go.

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NftRegretMachine

· 12-05 18:02

A rebound is just a rebound, no need to come up with so many reasons. Honestly, this bottom area is indeed short, and it looks like it's setting up for the next wave.

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fren.eth

· 12-05 18:01

To be honest, this logic is a bit too conservative. Who can really tell if it’s a rebound or a reversal? This bottom consolidation is indeed short, but saying the shakeout wasn’t deep enough... that sounds a bit like hindsight analysis. Do we have to wait for a complete turnover of chips before a turnaround? That could take forever.

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SerumSquirrel

· 12-05 17:58

I just want to ask, how do you quantify the logic of insufficient chip turnover? Whether it's a rebound or a reversal, honestly, who dares to be sure right now? Such a sharp bottom does feel a bit shaky... you get it. The cannon fodder for this drop is coming again, same old routine. But will it really reverse this time? Who can say for sure? Just looking at the timing isn't enough, you have to look at the trading volume too. Yeah, I'm just waiting to get proven wrong.

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NftDeepBreather

· 12-05 17:44

Hmm... To be honest, I've heard this logic too many times. Every time they say it's a rebound, not a reversal, but what happens in the end? The "insufficient accumulation" excuse is just talk—no one can truly pinpoint the bottom. This time it's real, can't fake it, but we'll still have to see how the market moves next. In the face of the market, everything is just a paper tiger. No matter how much you hype it up, it doesn't matter. A rebound is just a rebound, why bother wrapping it in fancy theories? Making money quietly is the real deal.

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GasFeeLover

· 12-05 17:42

Oh, I need to save this logic. Next time there's a rebound and people try to fool others, I'll bring this out. The point about insufficient turnover at the bottom really hits home for me—it really was too fast. A rebound is just a rebound, don't get caught up in illusions. Stay clear-headed. I love the part about not making a living by calling orders—there are just too many people doing that now. A loose chip structure definitely can't go far; this wave is probably going to pull back again. Analysis that's well-founded and evidence-based is just so much more reassuring, unlike those who just shout nonsense all day.

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