The most interesting part this time isn’t how much it dropped, but that most people misread the tempo. $FIL That high-level stretch looked strong at first; in reality, it was just a push that quickly went soft, then when it tried to rise it got pressed back down—like it was steadily sweeping away the patience of those chasing longs. The more lively the chart looks, the more I feel like we shouldn’t follow our emotions into it. Back then I was watching FIL. The real key was the false breakout around 0.9335—price didn’t hold above it, and volume didn’t confirm either. Once it pulls back from a spot like that, it’s easy to trigger a chain of sell pressure. After that, it went straight to 0.7489, and my short position was up by +952.32%, with the room for volatility opening up very clearly. Now I won’t start fantasizing about eating it all in one go after I’m in profit. I’ll take the main positions off in batches first, and keep a little remaining with a protection level to see whether there’s momentum for further downside. Put bluntly, the worst thing about trading is to get the win and still get greedy. If you didn’t catch it, don’t rush to add a short, and don’t chase entries either—there are opportunities every day. Wait for a more comfortable setup. $BTC $ETH

7.19 Morning BTC/ETH Market Analysis — Shiyuan’s View BTC On the 4-hour level, after probing the bottom at 62,500, it rebounded strongly. It is currently holding at 64,780, showing a clear bullish trend, and is building up to challenge the previous high at 65,590. A pullback and stabilization are bullish; the 65,000 level is ahead. As long as it doesn’t break 63,000, go long along the trend—don’t panic. Recommendations: Buy near 64,200–64,500 on the pullback, with a target around 65,500. ETH After dropping to 1,810, it quickly reclaimed. Current price is 1,861. The chart shows a bullish engulfing pattern; the desire to catch up is strong, and resistance is at 1,900–1,920. Long-wick probe lows have provided support, and it’s gearing up to break through. If ETH takes advantage of BTC’s momentum, 1,900 is within reach. Recommendation: Try a light long around 1,860, set stop-loss at 1,835, and target 1,890–1,910. $BTC $ETH

This drop just now wasn’t sudden— the chart had already been giving signals. $CFX In the earlier pushes, it failed to hold each time. The price still looks like it’s in a high range, but in reality, the bids have already loosened. Many people lost patience after being ground down by the sideways movement; the moment they see a small rebound, they want to chase it. Back then, I actually felt this was more like distribution. My focus isn’t whether it can still pump, but whether there’s sustained buy pressure after it’s pushed up. When CFX approached 0.05811, the structure clearly changed: the rebound had no volume, the suppression wasn’t broken, and the shorts were only one trigger point away. Then it was pulled up to 0.04659— +954.7% profit—and the move extended clearly. This kind of realizing gains feels way more comfortable than hard-guessing the direction. Now that the profits are in, it’s not suitable to get emotionally carried away. For those with larger positions, you can first do it in an 80/20 split in batches— protect the upside space you’ve already captured, and then watch whether the remaining position should continue if it breaks further down. You don’t need to max out every segment of the trade. The key is to not let the profits get given back. If you miss it, don’t rush— don’t chase orders, and wait for the next time the setup reaches a position with clear certainty. $BTC $ETH