#美联储降息预测

Core Viewpoint: Rate cuts have been largely priced in; after implementation, a "sell the fact" pullback may occur, but medium- to long-term expectations of ample liquidity will support risk assets.
1. Market Expectation Analysis
The CME FedWatch tool shows an over 84% probability of a 25BP rate cut in December, which the market has already priced in. Recent CPI and employment data are moderate, giving the Fed room to maneuver. However, be aware that the dot plot guidance for the 2024 path is more important than the rate cut itself—if the stance is hawkish, it may trigger short-term profit-taking.
2. Logic of Impact on Cryptocurrency Market
· Short-term (within 24H after the decision): If the rate cut proceeds as expected, BTC/ETH may spike and then pull back. Liquidity-sensitive assets (such as MEMEs and high Beta altcoins) will see increased volatility.
· Medium-term (2024Q1): The expectation of falling real interest rates will be strengthened, coupled with progress in spot ETF approvals, which may guide traditional funds into crypto through compliant channels. Core assets like ETH/BTC may see their focus move upward.
· Related Market Signals: Watch whether the US Dollar Index (DXY) falls below 102, and the steepening of the US Treasury yield curve, as these will amplify the macro attributes of crypto.
3. Recent Trading Strategy Reference
· For holders: Consider partially taking profits from aggressive positions before the decision, while retaining core positions (such as ETH/BTC spot).
· Hedging: Consider going long on volatility (such as buying options) to deal with the instant volatility at the time of the decision.
· Focus on sector rotation: If market sentiment remains positive after the rate cut, focus on narratives with strong fundamentals and clarity such as L2, RWA.
Risk Warning: If rates are unexpectedly held steady, the market may interpret this as a stronger-than-expected determination to fight inflation, and risk assets may fall by 5%+, so it is advisable to set stop-losses in advance.