Phân tích tuần đầu tiên của năm của Bitcoin: Cải thiện cấu trúc sau khi giảm đòn bẩy, thị trường quyền chọn đang kể câu chuyện gì?

【Block Beats】In the week of January 9, Bitcoin completed the deep deleveraging cycle from the end of the year, entering 2026 with a cleaner fund structure. From on-chain data, several signals are improving: profit-taking pressure has eased significantly, ETFs have turned to net inflows again, futures open interest has stopped falling and rebounded, and institutional participation is gradually recovering.

The most interesting development is the movement in the options market. In Q1 expiry contracts, traders are concentrated buying call options in the 9.5-10 million dollar range, while market makers have conversely become net short in the same range — this misalignment is quite subtle, with market makers’ hedging operations potentially providing momentum during upward price movements. Implied volatility is at a low level rebounding stage, and skew is continuously recovering toward bullish positioning. These are all positive signals for bulls.

Some analysts believe the current situation is more like an “early stage where structure is improving but sentiment hasn’t become euphoric yet.” If Bitcoin price can hold above the cost zone of short-term holders, upside elasticity is expected to gradually release. During this phase, many traders are adjusting their asset allocations in preparation for upcoming volatility.