The US May CPI data will be released next Wednesday, which may test the market's interest rate cut expectations.

The important macro data release nodes for next week are as follows: Monday 22:00, U.S. April wholesale sales month-on-month; Monday 23:00, U.S. May New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Wednesday 20:30, U.S. May CPI data; Wednesday 22:30, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories, Cushing crude oil inventories, and Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories for the week ending June 6; Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7, U.S. May PPI; Friday 22:00, U.S. June 1-year inflation rate forecast preliminary value, U.S. June University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value.

The U.S. May CPI report to be released next Wednesday will test the market’s optimism about interest rate cuts, as it may show a stagnation in the recent trend of declining inflation. According to the Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast model, the overall CPI for May is expected to increase by 2.4% year-on-year, up from 2.3% last month; the core CPI is expected to rise by 2.8% year-on-year, unchanged from last month. Analysts expect the annualized inflation rate for core goods to peak in the early fall (4%-5%), slightly lower and delayed compared to the forecast before the “equivalent tariffs” suspension on May 8.