The recent market trend has risen a bit unexpectedly.

There are two triggers: one is that Trump made a statement on social media, saying he would issue $2000 checks to low-income groups; the other is that the market bets that the government shutdown is about to end.

Old Trump's calculations are actually quite obvious - his tariff plan is under scrutiny by the Supreme Court, and the Kalshi platform shows a passage rate of only 23%. At this time, throwing out the promise of "giving money" is essentially creating momentum for himself, trying to use public opinion to bind the court's decision.

The crypto market reacted very directly to this, with short-term sentiment being ignited. After all, the memory of the massive liquidity injection in 2021 has not faded, and many people instinctively associate it with that wave of market movement.

But this time is completely different from last time.

In 2021, money could be distributed because Congress passed a complete fiscal bill. But what about now? The House and Senate are in disarray, and they can't even clean up the mess of a government shutdown. Can we expect them to quickly reach a consensus? It's basically impossible.

More importantly, the source of this $2000 funding is tariff revenue. If the tariffs are deemed illegal, where will the money come from? Old Trump hasn't provided an alternative plan either. So this matter now looks more like a political statement rather than a policy that can be implemented.

The market is driven by sentiment in the short term, but it still depends on the fundamentals in the long term. How far this rebound can go depends on the outcome of subsequent policy negotiations.