Will MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Reserves Survive the Next Crash?

Willy Woo just dropped an interesting take: Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (MSTR) won’t need to liquidate a single Bitcoin to cover its debt even if the market tanks hard. Here’s the math.

The company’s sitting on roughly $1.01 billion in convertible debt maturing September 2027. Sounds like a guillotine hanging over their BTC stash, right? Not necessarily.

The Magic Number

MSTR can repay this in three ways: pure cash, stock, or a mix. The key threshold? $183.19 per share. If the stock holds above that line, no forced Bitcoin fire sales.

Woo’s calculation: at current market net asset value, this price point roughly maps to a BTC price around $91,502. That’s meaningful—it basically means MSTR only gets liquidation-forced if Bitcoin crashes below ~$91.5k and the company’s valuation multiple compresses significantly.

Why This Matters

This is actually bullish posturing wrapped in numbers. Saylor’s built enough operational leverage into MSTR that even a moderate bear case doesn’t force them to panic-dump. The stock premium over NAV acts as a cushion.

But here’s the real tension: that $183 floor assumes the convertible holders don’t get spooked. In a real meltdown where BTC dumps 50%+, sentiment flips fast. The thesis holds only if markets stay somewhat rational.

Bottom line: MSTR’s debt structure isn’t the ticking time bomb it looks like on the surface—but it’s also not airtight. It depends on MSTR stock maintaining premium valuations and BTC not cascading below $90k+ levels simultaneously.