CEO of a compliant platform: Prediction markets are becoming an alternative to traditional media

Source: BlockMedia Original Title: Coinbase CEO “Prediction markets are replacing the media” Original Link: The CEO of a leading exchange, (CEO), emphasized the information transmission power of prediction markets, believing they are becoming an alternative to traditional media.

At an event held in New York, the CEO stated, “Prediction markets are not just simple investment tools, but have become a window into predicting what will happen in the world,” adding, “Although some participants trade as if they were trading assets, most people are using them as an information-gathering tool, replacing news.”

Prediction markets are online-based platforms where users can predict outcomes on various topics such as politics, economics, and culture, and invest real money. Representative platforms include Polymarket and Kalshi. Kalshi alone raised $1 billion in a Series C funding round just this week.

During the event, the CEO also shared a case where he deliberately mentioned certain words during a recent earnings report. He said, “On some prediction markets, people bet on which words I would say. Knowing this, I made sure to mention words like ‘margin’ and ‘custodial.’”

Meanwhile, a media columnist asked the Secretary of the Treasury about the next Federal Reserve chair and mentioned that prediction market platform Polymarket had listed someone as a strong contender. On that market, this candidate had a 70% probability of being appointed as the next chair.

In response, the Secretary of the Treasury said, “When I was a candidate for Treasury Secretary, my probability was 80%, then it dropped to 16%, and eventually became 100%,” adding, “The results of prediction markets depend on the quality of the information input.”

Prediction markets are gradually increasing their influence in US politics and major economic events. Recently, they have gained attention as information platforms that combine the collective intelligence of market participants with real-time capital flows, and some believe they have faster predictive capabilities than traditional polls or the media.