Last night, Bitcoin once again staged a typical pump-and-dump pattern, with the pace of rise and fall being ridiculously fast. A careful observation of the current market reveals that on the surface, everything seems calm, but in reality, liquidity is severely shrinking — much like an oasis in the desert, where even a slight breeze can trigger a flash crash or a sharp rally. If you still have open orders now, especially high-leverage positions, you must keep a close eye on the market tonight.

Macro-level pressures have recently erupted. Starting with the political front, Trump publicly stated his intention to sue and dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Powell, with a new nominee expected to be announced in January. This is not just casual talk; once the Fed changes its leadership, the monetary policy direction could reverse, and the market’s biggest fear is this uncertainty. As a high-risk asset, BTC is the first to be affected.

The bond market is also changing. The volatility of US Treasuries is expected to hit its largest annual decline since 2009, indicating that concerns about an economic recession are easing, and the Fed’s rate cuts seem to be having an effect. But there’s a hidden worry — expectations of liquidity tightening are emerging, which could likely drive speculative funds out of cryptocurrencies.

What’s more concerning are on-chain movements. Whales have quietly increased their Bitcoin short positions by 10 times, and have also added short positions in Ethereum and Solana, with total holdings reaching as high as $169 million. This is a clear bearish signal. When large funds collectively bet on a recession, retail investors face a key question: should they follow the trend or go against it?

To sum up, political uncertainty, tightening liquidity expectations, and large-scale shorting by big funds are hitting the market simultaneously. Short-term market sentiment is clearly leaning towards pessimism, especially with the global risk aversion intensified by Trump’s recent actions. If you’re unsure about risk levels, it’s better to stay cautious.