Having been involved in this market for nearly eight years, the most heartbreaking thing is watching too many people fall into the same trap—mistaking main force distribution for a shakeout, buying the dip more and more, and finally losing everything. A while ago, a friend got impatient and asked me if a certain coin dropping 30% was a good time to buy the dip. I looked at the candlestick chart, and my heart instantly sank. That was not a shakeout at all, but naked distribution. He still bought in, and the result was like throwing money into the sea.

**Shakeouts and distribution look similar but are fundamentally different**

On the surface, both involve the big players selling off, scaring retail investors into panic selling. But their purposes are completely different. A shakeout is "to scare people"—the main force wants to clear out those with weak resolve and seize the opportunity to accumulate at low prices. You’ll notice that a certain coin always stabilizes at a specific price level, as if an invisible hand is supporting the floor—this is often the main force protecting the price.

Distribution is "really selling off"—once they've made enough profit, they want to get out quickly and dump their high-priced chips onto new buyers. At this point, the market shows signs of weakness: huge volume at high levels but no price increase, and during rebounds, trading volume is weak, looking like a sick patient with no energy.

Honestly, the big players are not immortals. Sometimes they plan to shake out the market, but then unexpected negative news or a liquidity issue suddenly appears, and they turn hostile—what was supposed to be a shakeout turns into distribution. Conversely, if they initially wanted to clear their positions but market sentiment heats up, they might reverse and push the price up again. So, the market is alive—never hold on stubbornly.

**Three signals to see through the true intentions of the main force**

First, look at volume and price: during a shakeout, volume usually decreases as the price drops, because the main force wants retail to sell off and then buy back; distribution, on the other hand, involves increased volume. Imagine a sudden surge in trading volume at high levels, but the price remains stagnant—that’s a strong sign of distribution.

Second, observe rebounds: after a shakeout, a rebound with increasing volume indicates the main force is pushing the price up; but a weak rebound with decreasing volume shows the main force has lost interest in supporting the price.

Third, check support levels: during a shakeout, there will be obvious support below, tested repeatedly without breaking; but during distribution, once support is broken, it’s unlikely to recover, because the main force no longer cares.