USDC, possibly the Trojan horse through which the US exports "digital hegemony."

Yesterday, I did something very interesting:
I had Gemini engage in long-short opposing debates around #CRCL (#Circle ), continuously rebutting, questioning, and deepening the discussion.
Not just one round,
but over a dozen rounds.
The conclusion is very clear:
The truth does not appear at the first layer.
1. An important methodological insight
1️⃣ Multi-round adversarial thinking can greatly improve cognitive quality.
Seeing the market as only bullish or bearish is basically self-brainwashing.
But when a viewpoint is attacked, countered, and attacked again over a dozen rounds,
its flaws will naturally surface.
In the end, you don't even need to "pick a side,"
and you can still feel:
which side is closer to reality.
2️⃣ The "persuasiveness" of AI is very dangerous
This is more important than the conclusion itself.
The long-short arguments provided by Gemini,
each side appears extremely reasonable, logically coherent, and emotionally charged.
What does this imply?
👉 When you see on social media,
a KOL speaking passionately, with perfect logic, and a definitive conclusion—
your brain is very likely already hijacked.
The best solution is only one:
Immediately throw it to a large model, and let it dismantle what you're believing from the opposite side.
2. Returning to CRCL: the end of debate is trading
No matter how deep the debate,
it ultimately comes back to a real question:
How do you place your orders?
Gemini’s summary on this point is very “trader-like”:
A true expert is someone who holds two opposing views simultaneously but can still decisively place trades.
You don’t hold the answer,
but a double-edged sword of long-short thinking.
Trading is not about seeking the truth, but about betting on the future you believe in.
Truth swings between extremes, and profits are hidden in the amplitude of the swings.
This debate about CRCL,
on the surface about the business model,
deep down it’s—
a clash of two worldviews about the “future of money.”
3. Four core dimensions of the CRCL long-short game
Gemini ultimately distilled the over a dozen rounds of debate into four key questions:
① Compliance and regulation
Is it a “moat,” or a “noose”?
Bearish:
Compliance = betrayal of crypto spirit
USDC can be frozen, subject to censorship, a single point of failure
Neither side wins, possibly abandoned by both TradFi and DeFi
Bullish:
Compliance is an “entry ticket”
Trillions-level institutions and RWA will only choose USDC
Regulatory iron fist actually clears the field for Circle
👉 The fundamental question:
Will the crypto world ultimately lean towards idealism or compromise with order?
② Business model
Is it a “money printer,” or a “cash flow zombie”?
Bearish:
Rate cut cycle + yield-bearing stablecoin diversion
Profits are squeezed dry, turning into low-valuation utilities
Bullish:
Rate cuts = bull market = scale explosion
USDC is “money,” not a financial product
Profits come from transaction speed and ecosystem monopoly
👉 The fundamental question:
Can trading volume long-term hedge against price?
③ Technical attributes
Is it “infrastructure,” or “dumb pipeline”?
Bearish:
Wallet abstraction, instant payment of yield assets
USDC is just a transit station, holding time approaching zero
Bullish:
‍#USDC has been hardcoded into DeFi’s foundation
Tax, banking, fiat channels are “physical walls”
Financial infrastructure has strong inertia
👉 The fundamental question:
Can technological progress truly bypass the frictions of the real world?
④ Macroeconomics and geopolitics
Is it “a substitute for the dollar,” or a “discarded pawn”?
Bearish:
Once the route is established, officials will step in personally
Circle is just a trailblazer and scapegoat
Bullish:
Circle is America’s most perfect “digital white glove”
Using private companies to export dollar order and extend jurisdiction
The SVB incident has already proven it has “implicit guarantees”
👉 The fundamental question:
Will the US allow an uncontrolled digital dollar substitute to exist?
4. The most compelling phrase
Among all bullish viewpoints,
the one I most agree with, and also the most dangerous, is:
USDC is the Trojan horse through which the US exports “digital hegemony.”
It is not a victory for decentralization ideals,
but may be—
the optimal solution for state machinery in the digital world.
A final note for traders:
You don’t need to persuade the market through debate.
What you need to do is:
see through the long and short,
accept contradictions,
and then place your bets.
The market never rewards “people who want to understand everything,”
only those who dare to act amid uncertainty.