Stablecoin fluctuations trigger alarm bells. The devaluation of USDT off-exchange prices has gone beyond the scope of "slight deviation from pegged price," evolving into a market signal that cannot be ignored.

Just look at the current off-exchange quotes: the USDT to RMB transaction price has already fallen to 6.82, while at the same time, the USD spot exchange rate in the foreign exchange market remains steady at 7.01. In other words, exchanging USDT for RMB is now more costly than converting USD through the official channels. The negative price spread has broken through 3%, far exceeding the level at the beginning of the month.

This persistent widening of the discount is indeed abnormal. Normally, deviations in stablecoin prices are caused by short-term liquidity tightness or the costs of exchange channels, and they tend to revert quickly to the peg. But the current situation is that USDT’s discount is not only failing to converge but is actually expanding step by step. This is definitely not just emotional volatility; it reflects a structural selling pressure that is continuously building up.

The underlying logic behind the ongoing weakness off-exchange is quite simple: someone is大量、持续地 selling USDT for fiat currency, while there are very few takers. Such large-scale, organized selling is unlikely to come from retail investors. It more resembles large funds being forced or choosing to reduce their crypto holdings after a sharp decline in risk appetite.

Another point that deserves attention is that the USD in the foreign exchange market has not weakened simultaneously. This indicates that the current USDT discount is not due to "the dollar depreciating," but is purely a result of the crypto market actively abandoning it. The loss of premium and even deep discount in stablecoins does not reflect changes in the global dollar cycle but rather a vote of no confidence from within the crypto ecosystem.

Looking back at history, every time USDT experiences persistent negative premium, it always involves one of two situations: one is that risk assets are still under pressure, and capital outflows are far from ending; the other is that the market is issuing an early warning of deeper liquidity tightening.

It is still difficult to predict which direction the market will move, but one thing is certain—this is definitely not a small signal that can be ignored. When even stablecoins start being sold at a loss, it indicates that the entire crypto market’s tolerance for risk is quietly approaching a breaking point.