Don't be fooled by the Polymarket leaderboard; those accounts with 70% or 80% win rates aren't as impressive as they seem

I admit, I was attracted to it at first too.

When I opened the Polymarket leaderboard, the top few accounts had eye-catching success rates—70%, 80% success rates flooding the screen, with account names that looked highly professional, resembling the work of a quantitative team. The comments section was even more provocative:

"Smart money has already entered"
"This is a probability game, not gambling"
"This is an information advantage; those who got in early are making money"

But after watching the data for a few months, I realized: the win rate leaderboard is like a funhouse mirror.

**How terrible is survivor bias?**

The accounts shown on the leaderboard are just the survivors. How many accounts were eliminated due to consecutive losses? You can't see that. If 1,000 people bet randomly, some will hit over 70% success repeatedly—this isn't intelligence, it's the magic of probability itself.

**The truth about 50% win rates**

Over a longer timeline, those once-successful accounts usually can't last long. Their win rates tend to revert to around 50%—no different from flipping a coin. Some accounts can maintain a 55%-60% success rate, but that small advantage is completely eaten up by trading fees and slippage.

**Data can be deceptive**

The leaderboard is most misleading when considering the time dimension. An 80% success rate last week and an 80% success rate last month are two completely different things. New accounts, small capital, short-term trading—these can quickly produce impressive numbers. But what truly matters is long-term stability, and long-term stability is precisely where problems are most likely to be exposed.

**Why do some people still make money?**

Yes, but that's due to good information sensitivity and risk management, not some black technology. Early entry into a political event market, quick reaction to news, controlling individual positions—these advantages anyone can learn, as long as they have discipline.

**Bottom-line advice**

You can look at the leaderboard, but don't copy trades blindly. Find accounts that have been around for more than two years and have controlled drawdowns reasonably well, and observe their decision-making logic—this is 100 times better than blindly copying. Also, market prediction itself is full of uncertainty; no matter how high an account's win rate is, your risk tolerance and capital management are the biggest variables.