Short-term BTC holders' losses suppress selling pressure; breaking through $100,000 becomes a key turning point

【Blockchain Rhythm】From on-chain data, the current selling pressure in the BTC market is actually firmly controlled. This is because a large number of short-term holders (those holding within 155 days) are currently in a loss.

How to judge? Look at the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH Realized Price)—this indicator reflects the average cost basis of this group. Currently, BTC price is below this cost line, meaning their accounts are in the red. Investors with losses in their accounts usually won’t rush to sell; instead, they wait for the price to rebound to the breakeven point before taking action. This mindset suppresses the large-scale sell-off that might otherwise occur.

But here’s the problem. The $100,000 price point acts like a “minefield”—once BTC breaks through this level, short-term holders’ accounts will shift from loss to breakeven. At this point, the situation will reverse. Those eager to cut losses or lock in profits will start selling, and market selling pressure will significantly increase.

The technical signals are also giving indications. If the SMA (Simple Moving Average) continues to stay below the zero line, it signals that the market is transitioning from an accumulation phase to a distribution phase—simply put, from “preparing to rally” to “preparing to dump.”

So, the current situation is: the market is “anchored” by short-term holders’ losses, and selling pressure is suppressed. But once it breaks above $100,000, the game rules will change. What is the real confirmation signal? It’s whether BTC can stay stably above the short-term holders’ cost basis, which is the true sign of strength.