#密码资产动态追踪 Crude oil surged to 58.8 yesterday but lost momentum and dropped directly to close at 56.9. This morning it continued to weaken, breaking below 56 and reaching a low of 55.7. The downward trend is very clear, and the 55 level is particularly critical—once it breaks below, the space for further decline won't be far.

Why has it been falling? The fundamental factors can't be ignored. The IEA predicts that by 2026, the global daily surplus will be 4.09 million barrels, which is a significant number. Non-OPEC+ producing countries are still increasing output, and geopolitical turmoil in Venezuela has reinforced expectations of increased supply. Meanwhile, demand remains weak, making the bearish case stronger and stronger.

The trading approach is straightforward: short on rallies, don't be greedy. Look for short opportunities around the 57-58 range; once touched, decisively go short. If the European session continues to push down, the US session is likely to follow with more shorts; but if it stabilizes, wait for a consolidation opportunity. When the EIA inventory data is released tonight, if inventories increase, the bearish sentiment will intensify.