#数字资产行情上升 【Short-term technical break ≠ trend reversal, look at on-chain data to see what it says】

The 1-hour chart has collapsed. Bollinger Bands are opening downward, moving averages are in a bearish alignment, and the MACD histogram is expanding green—if you only look at technicals, there’s not much to say. But here’s the problem: the most deceptive signals are often from short-term candlesticks.

The truly interesting data is on-chain. In the past 24 hours, three addresses holding over 10,000 BTC quietly increased their holdings, and net outflows from exchanges hit a weekly high—what does this indicate? Large investors are lurking during the deepest declines.

From a macro perspective, the US SEC has been silent recently (which itself is a signal), while Asian institutions continue buying through OTC channels. Some call this a sign of all bad news being priced in, while others see it as a waiting signal. Regardless of interpretation, sustained large-scale accumulation is enough to offset short-term technical pessimism.

The key support level is here: 90500. If the price can hold above this level, the probability of a rebound pushing toward 91241 (the middle Bollinger Band) is quite high. Conversely, if it breaks below 90500 and further drops below 89800, then a reassessment is necessary.

**A reminder**: Short-term technical indicators can fluctuate wildly, creating false signals. The real direction depends on on-chain large investors’ choices and institutional fund flows. Whether going long or short, always set stop-losses—this is not a game of bravado but a game of probabilities. $BTC