【ETH In-Depth Analysis: Multi-Period Divergence Converging, Direction Selection Approaching】

Ethereum is currently trading at 3303, with a significant divergence in the 4-hour and 1-hour technical structures, indicating a typical "weak correction within a strong trend" phase. This multi-timeframe contradiction often signals that the consolidation is about to end, and a breakout in the next short-term direction is imminent.

Multi-Timeframe Technical Breakdown

· 4-Hour Level - High-Level Consolidation in an Uptrend
Price remains within the 3054-3402 range, currently near the midline. The MACD indicator shows a key divergence: DIF (38.6) and DEA (45.9) are still above zero, indicating the mid-term bullish trend remains intact; however, the MACD histogram has turned negative (-14.6) for consecutive bars, showing diminishing upward momentum. RSI (55.98) is in a neutral-leaning strong zone, leaving room for breakouts in either direction.
· 1-Hour Level - Clear Short-Term Weakness Structure
Price is below all short-term moving averages (MA5-MA50: 3309-3325), forming a textbook bearish alignment. MACD is below zero and converging (DIF:-4.3, DEA:-4.5), at a critical point of balance between bulls and bears. RSI (46.11) leans toward the bearish side but is not oversold, indicating downward momentum still has room to release. Volume continues to shrink, and market sentiment is cautious.

Multiple Validations at Key Levels

· Upper Resistance Zone: 3320-3330 Triple Resonance Band
1. Technical: Dense zone of 1-hour moving averages (MA20-MA50: 3306-3325) overlapping with the recent lower boundary of the 4-hour platform.
2. Psychological: Above 3350 are recent high points that faced multiple pullbacks, with obvious short-term selling pressure.
3. Structural: 3329 is the boundary between bullish and bearish in the 4-hour chart; a breakout is needed to reverse the short-term weakness.
· Lower Support Zone: 3174-3200 Double Defense Line
1. Dynamic Support: Uptrend support extending from the 1-hour level (3086-3174).
2. Static Support: The confluence of the 4-hour low at 3054 and the psychological threshold at 3200.
3. Order Book Validation: Chart shows a large accumulation of buy orders below 3200.

Two Evolution Paths of Bull-Bear Battle

· Path One (about 60% probability): Rebound first, then decline
Price tests resistance at 3320-3330, possibly breaking briefly to around 3350, but lacking sustained buying support, it quickly falls back, ultimately testing support at 3200-3174. This pattern often results in a classic "false breakout" trap.
· Path Two (about 40% probability): Directly bottom out
Price consolidates below 3310, then with increased volume, breaks below 3270 support, directly testing the 3200 key level, and seeks support around 3174-3200 for stabilization. This approach tends to be more decisive.

Refined Trading Strategies

· Range Trading Strategy (currently applicable)
Buy low and sell high within the 3270-3320 range. Near 3315-3325, try small short positions with a stop at 3340, targeting 3280-3260. Near 3270-3280, try small long positions with a stop at 3250, targeting 3300-3315.
· Breakout Follow-Through Strategy
If volume increases and breaks above 3330 and stabilizes, go long on the right side, with a stop at 3300, targeting 3370-3400. If volume drops and breaks below 3260 without recovery on the 1-hour chart, follow the trend short, with a stop at 3290, targeting 3200-3174.

Risk Alerts and Key Observations

1. Time Window: Currently mid-week, volatility may gradually increase.
2. Correlation: Watch closely for BTC in the 94700-96300 range; ETH is likely to follow.
3. Derivatives Data: Large open interest near 3300, which may exert price influence before expiry.

Current Optimal Strategy
Recommend adopting a "range-bound with breakout as a supplement" dual plan. Before a clear breakout of the 3270-3330 zone, focus on range trading with about 70% position size. Pay close attention to whether 3330 can break with volume or if 3270 will give way with volume. Any breakout in either direction could lead to at least 50-80 points of follow-up movement.

(The market is at a critical turning point; maintain flexible positions to adapt. Subscribers can access real-time long-short ratio adjustments, precise order price settings down to one decimal, and phased entry plans for breakout trades.)#加密市场观察