ETH Technical Outlook: Recovery Structure Forms After Deep Corrective Phase

Ethereum remains within a broader corrective structure after the sharp rejection from the $4,450–$4,950 macro supply zone (0.786–1 Fib). That rejection marked a distribution top, followed by a strong bearish continuation into the $2,620 macro demand region.

Recent price action shows ETH rebounding from long-term demand, forming a rounded base with higher lows. Momentum has improved, though the higher-timeframe trend has not yet fully shifted bullish.

EMA Structure (Bearish Bias, Improving Short-Term Momentum)

20 EMA: 3,188
50 EMA: 3,165
100 EMA: 3,290
200 EMA: 3,338

ETH has reclaimed the 20 & 50 EMA, signaling short-term bullish momentum. However, price remains below the 100 & 200 EMA, keeping the medium- to long-term structure corrective.

The $3,290–$3,340 zone represents a major dynamic resistance cluster, where selling pressure is likely to increase.

Fibonacci & Price Structure

1 Fib: 4,956
0.786 Fib: 4,457
0.618 Fib: 4,065
0.5 Fib: 3,790
0.382 Fib: 3,514
0.236 Fib: 3,174
Fib 0: 2,623

ETH is currently trading just above the 0.236 Fib ($3,174), which now acts as a key structural pivot. Sustained acceptance above this level opens the door for a move toward $3,514–$3,790, where Fib resistance and EMA confluence align.

Failure to hold above $3,050–$3,000 would weaken the recovery structure and increase the risk of a retest of the $2,850–$2,620 macro demand zone.

Structural Context

Price action shows higher lows since the December bottom, indicating early accumulation behavior. However, ETH remains capped below major overhead resistance, keeping the current move classified as a corrective recovery rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

A decisive daily close above $3,514–$3,790 would be required to shift market structure back toward bullish continuation.

RSI Momentum

RSI (14): 60

RSI is above neutral, reflecting improving momentum and increasing buyer participation. RSI approaching the upper mid-range suggests possible short-term consolidation near resistance before continuation.

📊 Key Levels

Resistance

$3,290–$3,340 (100–200 EMA cluster)

$3,514 (0.382 Fib)

$3,790 (0.5 Fib)

$4,065 (0.618 Fib)

Support

$3,174 (0.236 Fib)

$3,050–$3,000 (short-term base)

$2,850–$2,620 (macro demand / Fib 0)

📌 Summary

ETH is attempting a structured recovery after defending a major long-term demand zone. While short-term momentum has turned positive, the broader structure remains corrective unless price can reclaim $3,514–$3,790 with strength. Until that occurs, upside moves are likely to face heavy resistance, keeping ETH in a range-bound recovery phase.

$ETH