#美国核心物价涨幅不及市场预估 Have the bulls and bears really switched? An old trader’s market observation

Lately, watching the market feels quite strange—familiar to the point of making my hair stand on end. The screen is filled with the same question: is this just a normal correction, or has the bear market already knocked on the door?

I remember when I first entered the crypto world, hearing veterans talk about a four-year cycle of bull and bear markets, and I thought it was just a way to set expectations. Only after experiencing losses did I realize: bull and bear markets are not just words—they are realities built with money. How is this round of market? BTC plummeted from 126,000 to 94,000, and altcoins are even worse—50% to 70% drops are everywhere. If someone still claims the market hasn’t flipped, they’re really just talking nonsense.

The most disturbing scene happened at the beginning of the month: BTC stubbornly held at 110,000, while a batch of “monster coins” went into crazy mode, with 2-3x gains tempting traders everywhere. I saw this scene once before, on the eve of the 2021 bear market. Back then, warnings were met with ridicule, and what happened? Tens of billions of leverage positions were wiped out, and half a year’s worth of gains evaporated instantly.

Looking at the data itself: after the halving, reaching the 18th month, history shows that market turns often happen around this time. The technical charts are even more telling—both the 3-year and yearly moving averages are struggling to hold, and the 72,000 line is now dangerously close to breaking. On top of that, macro conditions are not favorable—hopes for rate cuts have been dashed, hawkish tones are frequent, and liquidity is tightening. Are we still expecting a liquidity easing at the end of the year? That’s basically a pipe dream now.

ETF institutions are still accumulating, so the market isn’t completely dead, but big capital’s attitude is clear—pull back first, wait for the fog to clear before making moves. Instead of obsessing over whether it’s bull or bear, it’s better to stabilize your own rhythm.

Opportunities never appear in the noisy places; they accumulate slowly in forgotten corners. Don’t blindly rush in—getting the right direction is a thousand times more important than rushing headlong.